Just days after announcing that he would be offering the nation a speech praising the actions of those who assaulted the Capitol on the anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurgency, Donald Trump has canceled that planned appearance. The Tuesday evening cancellation of the speech from Trump reportedly comes under pressure from Republicans in Congress, who are increasingly concerned that—even as the House Select Committee on Jan. 6 subpoenas more witnesses, and turns up more evidence of the multi-layered attempt to overturn the 2020 election—the 2022 elections could become a referendum on their support for the insurgency.

As the nation observes the first anniversary of the Jan. 6 assault on Thursday, President Joe Biden will address the somber anniversary as part of a remembrance to be held on Capitol Hill. Trump had announced his attentions to hold a press event at the same time as Biden’s speech. Advisers indicated that Trump was expected to label the House investigation into the events of Jan. 6 another “witch hunt” by Nancy Pelosi. Trump was also expected to defend those who assaulted police, smashed their way into the Capitol, and called for Mike Pence to be hanged. Trump reportedly was to say that these acts were a “legitimate reaction to a ‘stolen’ election.”

But Republicans seeking office in 2022 are increasingly concerned that their support for Trump means that the upcoming election will play out with Jan. 6 at its center. 

As The Washington Post reports, the ongoing investigations into events behind Jan. 6 and the midterm elections “have the potential to collide this year in a way that could shape which party controls Congress.” Exactly how that plays out isn’t clear, but it doesn’t seem to be an encouraging sign for Republicans.

A year after Jan. 6, a USA Today / Suffolk poll finds that 58% of Republicans say that President Joe Biden “wasn’t legitimately elected.” In another poll, 40% of Republicans now believe violence against the government is justified. For Republicans running in 2022, this puts them in the position of defending the Big Lie, and tiptoeing around the violence of Jan. 6 in order to secure the support of their base in both the primary and the general election. 

However, an ABC News / Ipsos poll finds that 72% of Americans believe that the insurgents on Jan. 6 represented a threat to American democracy. In addition, 58% thought that Donald Trump bore either “a great deal” or a “good amount” of responsibility for that attack.

So Republicans are pinned in a position where the continued pressure from Trump, from extremists within their party, and from right-wing media like Fox News has cemented the Big Lie as a GOP staple. And, with the help of Trump, Tucker Carlson, Mike Lindell, Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, and a steady stream of media support for their conspiracy theories and counterfactual claims, the most active part of the Republican base believes that Jan. 6 was either a “false flag operation” or a “peaceful protest.”

Trump’s cancellation of his Jan. 6 event only underscores exactly what the content of his speech would have been like. As Politico reports, Trump started off that announcement by saying: “In light of the total bias and dishonesty of the January 6th Unselect Committee of Democrats, two failed Republicans, and the Fake News Media, I am canceling the January 6th Press Conference at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday.”

Across the country, Republicans have passed laws restricting voting in the 2022 election. They’ve changed the rules at the state level allowing them to purge Democrats from election boards. They’ve harassed and threatened election workers from county boards to secretaries of state. They’ve engaged in partisan gerrymanders to redraw districts in ways that give Republicans an enormous advantage. They’ve done everything to make it clear to their base that if they win in 2022, 2024 is a foregone conclusion.

But first, they have to win in 2022, and even with the advantages they’ve handed themselves by crushing voting rights and slicing up districts, the one thing that could really upset their sprint to violent authoritarian rule is … having to run an election based on their defense of violent authoritarian rule.

That’s not to say they don’t have a plan. From social media to Fox News to GOP fundraisers to every AM dial in the nation, Republicans are pushing the idea that when they win, they’ll create a “real Jan. 6 commission.” The purpose of that commission? To investigate how Nancy Pelosi is actually responsible for providing security for Congress, how the FBI was secretly involved in stirring violence outside the Capitol, and how the ranks of Trump supporters were infiltrated by antifa and BLM.

To that end, other Republican “commemorations” of Jan. 6 will go on. That includes a very special podcast from Steve Bannon in which he’ll co-host with one of the producers from Carlson’s “Patriot Purge” broadcast. 

Republicans running for office in 2002 are happy enough to have Bannon and others continue to push these lies, and to have Fox News continue to put millions behind conspiracy theories that defend the insurgents. They just don’t want to be placed in a position where they have to answer questions about Trump, the Jan. 6 assault, or the evidence that continues to pour out of a widespread Republican coup attempt. 

Thank goodness for them that the press is cooperating.