In a recent call among former Trump administration officials, an aide to former national security adviser John Bolton reportedly shared polling from Bolton’s super PAC that showed Donald Trump’s favorability declining among registered Republicans and right-leaning independents.

Civiqs’ tracking poll of Trump’s favorability rating has been picking up a similar softening among GOP voters and independents.

Among independents, Trump’s favorability rating starts to drop around Dec. 20, which is exactly when Trump was booed by a friendly crowd in Dallas after he admitted to getting a booster shot. Before that mention, Trump was polling around 41% favorability with independents and has since dropped to 39%.

Civiqs Results

What’s interesting is that Trump’s favorability among independents took a similar dip last year in late August shortly after he was booed at an Alabama rally in which he promoted the vaccine and said he had gotten the jab. Overall, Trump has lost about a handful of points with independents since December 2020/January 2021. 

Trump’s softening among Republican voters looks much more gradual and consistent, from 92% on Election Day last year to 84% now.

Civiqs Results

Both graphs also show a slow rise in the number of Republicans and indies who say they are “unsure” about Trump—a trend that begins right around the Jan. 6 attack on Capitol.

The softening in support comes amid a deepening feud between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has declined to say he would stand down from a presidential bid if Trump runs again in 2024.

The polling also suggests that two of Trump’s biggest weaknesses among conservative voters are his support for vaccines and his involvement in inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Republican rivals of Trump, such as DeSantis, can potentially leverage his vaccine promotion to curry favor with a fervently anti-vaccine GOP base. On the other hand, Democrats can hammer Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 insurrection to peel away conservative voters who may have supported Trump but detested the Capitol attack.