At 6:30 PM ET Wednesday, the Senate Democrats will try to break the filibuster on voting rights and election reform. There will be 48 Democrats united behind doing this, according to Fix the Senate, with Arizona freshman Mark Kelly announcing this morning that he will support a change to the Senate rules, further isolating his fellow Arizonan, Kyrsten Sinema, and West Virginian Joe Manchin.

“If campaign finance and voting rights reforms are blocked again this week, I will support the proposed changes to pass them with a majority vote. Protecting the vote-by-mail system used by a majority of Arizonans and getting dark money out of our elections is too important to let fall victim to Washington dysfunction,” Kelly said in a statement to The Arizona Republic. The Senate is already broken, he said in the statement, and that is endangering the government for being able to do anything to help Americans. “We’re seeing that now, as voting rights legislation remains blocked while partisan politicians work to undermine Arizona’s successful vote-by-mail system and create more barriers to vote,” his statement said.

That’s pretty huge and aimed directly at Sinema, who got some other bad news Tuesday: Emily’s Lists, an influential donor group that supports Democratic pro-choice women candidates, is cutting her off if she doesn’t support filibuster reform for voting rights.

“We want to make it clear: If Sen. Sinema can not support a path forward for the passage of this legislation, we believe she undermines the foundations of our democracy, her own path to victory, and also the mission of Emily’s List, and we will be unable to endorse her moving forward,” the group’s president, Laphonza Butler, said.

Not just Emily’s List, either. NARAL Pro-Choice America announced Tuesday that they are “changing our endorsement criteria to reflect our commitment to the freedom to vote. Going forward, we won’t endorse any U.S. senator who doesn’t support changing the Senate rules to pass voting rights legislation. Our democracy is on the line.” Emily’s List independent expenditure arm, Women Vote!, spent $1.7 million in ad campaigns for Sinema in 2018. That’s apart from whatever individual donations from the organization’s members went to her.

That’s the stage set for Sinema. For his part, Manchin shot down the other 48 Democrats’ plan for filibuster reform for voting rights in a series of profoundly disingenuous, clueless, and asinine comments Tuesday night, ahead of an all-conference meeting to discuss strategies. Starting with “The laws are there and the rules are there and, basically, the government will stand behind them and give them the right to vote. We have that.” He actually said, “We act like we are going to obstruct people from voting, that is not going to happen.” He apparently doesn’t pay a lot of attention to how any of this works, despite being in the thick of it. Further evidence of that, according to people in the room, is that he told the Democratic caucus meeting that “he disagreed with the history that was being presented on the filibuster.”

Manchin walked back some of that dunderheaded positioning Wednesday morning, when he told reporters that he would speak on the floor about the rules change, and that he “would like to see us stay on the bill,” meaning not try for a cloture vote at the end of the day, to trigger the rule change. He added, “It is such an important issue that all of us have grave concerns about, and it’s worthy of the time we spend. I would like to see us stay on the bill. There’s no use to try to bring this to finality by having a vote that’s going to fail tonight. Let’s just stay on it.“

If it fails tonight, it will do so because of him and Sinema. Because he doesn’t really have such grave concerns about this important issue. Not when Tuesday night he actually said this:

Someone must have told him how utterly ignorant and thick-headed he was seeming with these statements, so today he’s been trying to do the cleanup. By the way, that’s Manchin predictably falling hook, line, and sinker for the trap Mitch McConnell and Susan Collins have set—dangling “bipartisan” reform on the Electoral Count Act as a substitute for saving voting rights and ensuring that elections are free and fair.

But whether Manchin means it, whether he really wants to just keep talking—have the talking filibuster—that Schumer and Democrats intend to try to restore with this bill, what’s his endpoint? They talk forever and don’t actually vote?

As of Wednesday morning, the plan for how the Senate would proceed was for Schumer to call for a cloture vote at 6:30 to move to final passage of the bill. It won’t pass. Schumer would at that point, probably, make a point of order that simple majority votes should be required to end the filibuster on legislation related to voting rights. The presiding officer will rule against Schumer, because it is not the current rule, and Schumer will appeal the ruling of the chair.

Then there will be a vote on that ruling, for which Schumer needs a majority of senators to vote no, to vote against affirming the ruling of the chair. So at this point, Democrats will vote no, Republicans yea. If there’s a tie, Vice President Kamala Harris would break the tie and this bit of filibuster reform will have been done. It’s important at this point to note that this is a simple majority vote—it doesn’t require 51 votes, but a majority of senators present and voting. As of Wednesday morning, it wasn’t clear how many senators might be absent.