December jobs report short of expectations ... but October and November jobs numbers revised upward


Jobs Unemployment

Another month of pandemic, another confusing and somewhat contradictory jobs report. The headline numbers are that 199,000 new jobs were created in December, while the unemployment level fell to 3.9%, the lowest of the pandemic. The first of those numbers is below expectations, while the second is, well, the best in nearly two years.

A key piece of context for the overall jobs creation number is that this measure has repeatedly been revised up by large amounts since the summer. From June through September, jobs numbers were revised up by a combined 626,000 jobs. And this month’s report saw the numbers for October and November revised up by a combined 141,000 jobs. So while the initial report is always subject to revision, the 199,000 number this month should be seen as very much a first guess.

It’s also important to understand that while this is labeled the December jobs report, the time period it covers is before omicron took full effect.

The jobs and unemployment numbers come from two different surveys, which have been producing these unusually divided outlooks in recent months. Traditionally, the payroll survey, which measures job growth, is considered more reliable. But given the uncertainties of the pandemic and all those revisions in recent months it’s hard to know, and the Economic Policy Institute’s (EPI) Heidi Shierholz takes the broad view, tweeting, “Looking over the full year, 2021 jobs data is pretty mindboggling. We added 6.4 million jobs and the labor force participation rate rose. Wage growth was strong and workers were able to quit their jobs to take better ones”—strength that can be substantially attributed to the American Rescue Plan.

But, Shierholz notes, the improvements of 2021 still don’t fully get the economy out of the hole: “[W]e still have a long way to go!  We are still down 3.6 million jobs, and when you add in the jobs we would have added over the last 22 months, the total jobs gap is likely well over 6 million. The labor force participation rate increased in 2021 but is still depressed.” Shierholz points to a key gap in state and local government jobs, particularly in education, which is missing 567,000 jobs since before the beginning of the pandemic. That’s a hole that American Rescue Plan money should be plugging.

The EPI’s Elise Gould highlights another area of concern in the unemployment numbers. While unemployment dropped by 0.3 percentage points overall, unemployment among Black people headed in the wrong direction, rising by 0.6 percentage points. “The increase in Black unemployment appears to be borne by Black women, who experienced a huge jump in their unemployment rate from 4.9% to 6.2% in December, due in part to lower employment levels as well as an increase in labor force participation,” Gould tweeted.

The pandemic economy remains uncertain, changeable, and hard to measure. But the overall picture is one of major improvement through 2021, directly attributable to the American Rescue Plan, a Democratic policy opposed by every single Republican.