As we approach the two-year mark for the COVID-19 pandemic in this country, about 91% of Democratic voters have received at least one dose of the three major vaccines approved to protect against the virus, all of which have been available (roughly) since last December. Republican voters continue to trail in vaccine acceptance, with only about 60% having received their first dose.

It may very well be that the omicron variant now sweeping through the U.K. and the rest of Europe results in fewer deaths and less severe illness than prior variants; the data on that question is still incomplete. But one aspect of omicron appears beyond doubt at this point: it is far, far more contagious than even the delta variant which continues to sow death and illness in this country, predominantly among the unvaccinated. The early data and studies show that those who have received booster shots of the vaccine (right now about 30% of American adults) are the most protected among the population. It’s reasonable to conclude based on the current vaccine acceptance rates that the majority of those who have received boosters are Democrats. And it’s also reasonable to assume that of those rushing out this holiday season to obtain those booster shots to protect against omicron, the majority of those folks will also be Democrats.

As David Leonhardt, writing for Friday’s New York Times points out, Omicron—whatever its severity ultimately turns out to be—is poised to disproportionately impact more Republican-leaning, vaccine- averse enclaves as it spreads throughout the country. And while he points out that leading conservative figures who have monetized and profited off the spread of disinformation about the pandemic, such as Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, or even Donald Trump could easily use their outsized megaphones to communicate this fact to the Republican base, he doesn’t see that as a likely prospect:

Leonhardt quotes Kossack Charles Gaba’s data—now familiar to most people who read this site—which indicates the stark disparity in vaccination rates between Trump-leaning counties and counties that voted largely for Joe Biden. As those of us familiar with Gaba’s efforts know, “This vaccination gap has created a huge gap in death rates, one that has grown sharply during the second half of the year.”

The reasons for this phenomenon have been explored over and over on this site. Leonhardt lists a few:

They criticize vaccine mandates, sensationalize rare side effects and describe vaccination as a personal choice.

But even if omicron turns out to be, say, 30% less severe than the delta variant, because it is so contagious we are still almost certain to see a substantial spike in deaths; that’s just simple math at work. Leonhardt quotes Dr. Robert Wachter of the University of California, San Francisco:

Having established that those most susceptible to the worst aspects and effects of omicron are first, the unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated, followed by those who have received both doses but no boosters, and assuming (as we must) that more Democrats than Republicans are now rushing out to get the booster shot, it’s not hard to predict the people who will be most severely impacted by omicron. The fact that 40% of Republican voters are out there without having received even one dose of these vaccines tells you all you need to know. And of those unvaccinated, very few are taking omicron seriously enough to even get vaccinated for the first dose.

What Leonhardt doesn’t mention—but seems rather obvious—is that if the omicron variant is spreading as fast as we know it is in Denmark, for example, where cases are doubling each day, then it’s already too late for the unvaccinated. Even if they run out and receive their first dose today, they won’t be eligible for another dose for three weeks thereafter. For boosters (under current guidelines), not until six months from their second dose. And even if these time frames are eventually truncated, we’re still looking at months before the currently unvaccinated could receive what is now characterized as adequate protection from omicron.

Along these lines, the old parable of the rice and the chessboard is instructive in showing how quickly something “doubling each day” can add up to an astronomical number within 30 days. 

So by all evidence, omicron is coming very quickly. It’s coming this winter for everyone, to be sure, but (based on the early data) it’s mostly coming for those who never took the vaccines seriously in the first place; that is, those who never got vaccinated or did not do so until recently and therefore aren’t yet eligible for a booster shot.  Those people are (disproportionately) Republicans. They’re not going to social distance, they’re certainly not going to start wearing masks. And thanks to their disinformation industry, social media, and those conservative politicians and media personalities who have sown doubt about the vaccines from the very start, it’s simply too late for most of them to do anything about it.