The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● GA-Gov: A new poll from the Republican firm Insider Advantage for Fox 5 Atlanta gives Gov. Brian Kemp a 41-22 lead over his newly-announced foe in next year’s GOP primary, former Sen. David Perdue, with former state Rep. Vernon Jones in third with 11%. That finding doesn’t square at all, though, with Fox 5’s own headline, which reads, “Dead Heat between Kemp, Perdue due to Trump endorsement.” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution likewise trumpeted, “Brian Kemp and David Perdue neck-and-neck in early poll.” Many on Twitter, of course, followed suit. So what gives?

It turns out that the local Fox station was touting a question it shouldn’t have touted. As in any normal poll, Insider Advantage asked respondents how they’d vote in the primary, yielding that 19-point Kemp lead. It then followed up by asking, “As you may have heard, President Trump is planning to endorse David Perdue in the Republican Primary for Governor. Knowing this information, how would you vote?”

When presented with this news, Kemp sinks into a 34-34 tie with Perdue, while Jones ticks down slightly to 10%. And sure enough, Trump went ahead and endorsed Perdue’s nascent campaign on Tuesday over Kemp, whose rejection of the Big Lie single-handedly turned the governor from Trump favorite to outcast.

It’s absolutely fine for pollsters to ask questions like this, which are known as informed ballot tests, as long as they do so after they ask about the horserace without any prompting. And this finding does indeed tell us that Perdue could benefit mightily in the primary by making sure no one forgets he’s Trump’s chosen candidate.

Campaign Action

What’s not okay, though, is for media organizations to treat the results of the second question as though it represents the true results of the poll. As Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin writes, “Trump has already endorsed Perdue, yes, but that hasn’t made the race a dead heat. Kemp begins with a 19-point lead.” He adds, “That’s the reflection of reality. Everything else in the poll is simulated and far less notable.”

It’s simulated because Perdue has yet to actually communicate Trump’s endorsement to primary voters, something that’s much more time-consuming and expensive to do compared with a pollster simply sharing that information with a few hundred respondents in a survey.

It’s quite possible, of course, that whatever lead Kemp starts with will collapse by May’s primary after Perdue and his forces have had half a year to play up Trump’s preference for the challenger every chance they get, but that doesn’t mean we can treat the informed ballot question as the true state of the race. Kemp himself will not lack for resources, and he’ll have the chance to spread his own narrative about Perdue, who lost re-election in a January runoff that helped cost Team Red the Senate.

There’s no way to know if the governor’s messaging will sink in, of course, but Kemp will at least have a chance to convince voters that the race is something other than just a fight between the Trump-endorsed Perdue and himself. After all, plenty of candidates Trump has backed have nonetheless gone down to defeat—and that’s something reporters and analysts alike shouldn’t lose sight of.

Redistricting

● MD Redistricting: Maryland’s Democratic-run Senate passed a new congressional map on Wednesday on a party-line vote, following the same action in the House a day earlier. Republican Gov. Larry Hogan has vowed to veto the plan and could reportedly do so as soon as Thursday, but Democrats would easily be able to override him.

● NC Redistricting: North Carolina’s Supreme Court temporarily stayed candidate filing for all races in an order on Wednesday and also pushed out the state’s primary from March 8 to May 17, due to a pair of lawsuits challenging the state’s new congressional and legislative maps that are currently pending. Runoffs, which second-place finishers can request if the top vote-getter doesn’t win 30% of the vote, would take place on July 26, if they follow the state’s typical 10-week pattern. (If only state races—and no federal races—require runoffs, those would instead happen on July 5.)

The justices also ordered the trial court hearing the two cases (which were previously consolidated) to issue a ruling by Jan. 11. Filing will re-open once “a final judgment on the merits of plaintiffs’ claims, including any appeals” is reached, and any candidates who’ve already filed won’t have to file again as long as they’re seeking the same office. (Presumably if the maps are redrawn, anyone who winds up in a different district will have to resubmit paperwork.) The lower court recently rejected a request for a preliminary injunction blocking the maps but has yet to fully adjudicate the matter.

North Carolina’s filing period was set to begin on Monday at 12 PM ET, but a three-judge panel on the state Court of Appeals indefinitely delayed filing for legislative and congressional candidates that morning. Later that same day, however, the entire court (with all 15 members sitting “en banc”) reversed that order and allowed filing to recommence. It’s still not known which judges were on the original panel, or how they or the entire appeals court voted. The Supreme Court’s order likewise did not indicate how the seven justices—four Democrats and three Republicans—each voted.

To keep up with these and any other changes to election dates next year, please bookmark our calendar of filing deadlines, primaries, and runoffs, which we keep continually updated.

● NM Redistricting: New Mexico Democrats have introduced a new congressional map that would make the traditionally conservative 2nd District in the southern part of the state considerably bluer by splitting the city of Albuquerque, which currently sits almost entirely in the 1st District. As a result, this version of the 2nd, which would include about a quarter of the city, would have voted for Joe Biden by a 52-46 margin, according to Dave’s Redistricting App, versus 55-43 for Donald Trump under the existing lines.

The 1st District, which would hang on to the remainder of Albuquerque while adding a large swath of central New Mexico that’s now in the 2nd, would become somewhat redder, going from a 60-37 win for Biden to a 57-41 Biden advantage. The 3rd District, which stretches across the state’s northern tier, would also be affected, since it would dive down to scoop up some southeastern turf that’s likewise currently in the 2nd. Consequently, it would shift from 58-40 for Biden to 54-44 Biden.

This is the first time in three decades that New Mexico Democrats have had full control over the redistricting process, giving them the opportunity to gerrymander the lines to their benefit (the current map was drawn by the courts). Their intent here is to target Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell, who first won office last year by ousting Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres-Small 54-46 in a rematch. Torres-Small’s victory over Herrell in 2018, when the 2nd District was open, was one of the cycle’s biggest upsets, but given the seat’s usual lean, Democrats have rarely won it.

If this map becomes law, that pattern could change, though with a midterm environment that’s likely to favor the GOP, Herrell could nonetheless hang on.

● PA Redistricting: Republicans in the Pennsylvania House have introduced a draft congressional map drawn by former Lehigh County Commissioner Amanda Holt, a Republican who successfully challenged the state’s legislative districts a decade ago on the grounds that they split too many cities and towns. However, it’s exceedingly unlikely that Republicans, who control both chambers of the legislature, will reach a compromise with Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, meaning redistricting will likely fall to the courts.

Governors

● FL-Gov: The Florida Commission on Ethics said Wednesday it had found probable cause to believe that state Agriculture Commissioner ​​Nikki Fried, who is one of the three major Democrats running for governor, broke state law by failing to properly disclose her income. Fried’s campaign responded by casting the ruling as a partisan attack and pledged to challenge it in court.

Just before she launched her campaign against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in June, Fried submitted amendments to her 2017 and 2018 disclosure forms to reveal she’d made $350,000 lobbying for a plant farm that went on to be acquired by a medical marijuana company. Republicans quickly filed an ethics complaint against Fried, whose 2018 win made her Florida’s only statewide Democratic official.

Fried’s team says she made these changes to correct unintentional errors and charged that her GOP detractors had filed a “politically inspired nuisance complaint.”

● IA-Gov: State Auditor Rob Sand said Tuesday that he would run for re-election rather than seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds. The Democratic field for governor currently consists of Deidre DeJear, who was the 2018 nominee for secretary of state, and state Rep. Ras Smith, while state Sen. Pam Jochum expressed interest back in September.

● MA-Gov: The Boston Herald reports that former U.S. Attorney Andrew Lelling is considering running to succeed his fellow Republican, retiring Gov. Charlie Baker.

● OR-Gov: 2018 Republican nominee Knute Buehler said Tuesday he was backing the campaign of state Sen. Betsy Johnson, a longtime conservative Democrat who is running for governor as an independent.

Buehler fared poorly in last year’s primary for the 2nd Congressional District so his endorsement may not mean much to GOP voters, but Oregon Capital Bureau’s Gary Warner notes there’s one person who could be influenced by his decision. Nike founder Phil Knight contributed $2.5 million to Buehler’s 2018 campaign and funded a super PAC to aid him in 2020, and the megadonor has yet to pick sides this time.

● PA-Gov: State Sen. Scott Martin, a Republican who formed an exploratory committee back in June, says he will have an announcement on Saturday.

● TX-Gov: Quinnipiac University’s first survey of this race finds Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading 52-37 against his likely Democratic foe, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke.

House

● CA-22: Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig on Wednesday became the first notable Republican to enter the race to succeed far-right Rep. Devin Nunes following his surprise Monday resignation announcement, a move that comes even though no one knows what California’s new congressional map will look like. Another Republican, state Sen. Andreas Borgeas, has filed with the FEC, though he doesn’t appear to have confirmed he’ll run either in the upcoming special to succeed Nunes or for a regular two-year term.

Several other local Republicans are also talking about campaigning here. Fresno City Councilman Garry Bredefeld and Assemblyman Devon Mathis both informed the Fresno Bee they were thinking about getting in, with Mathis adding that he was awaiting the new map.

Assemblyman Jim Patterson likewise told the GV Wire’s David Taub, “I will decide one way or the other after the final maps for my assembly seat and the congressional seat are finalized.” Patterson, who is a former mayor of Fresno, unsuccessfully campaigned for Congress twice in the Central Valley under the prior version of California’s maps. He ran in 2002 for what was then the 21st District and lost the GOP primary to none other than Nunes 37-33. Patterson tried again in 2010 to succeed retiring Rep. George Radanovich in the 19th District, but state Sen. Jeff Denham earned the nomination 36-31.

Several other Republicans, meanwhile, told Taub they wouldn’t run:

Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer
Fresno County Sheriff Margaret Mims
Tulare County Supervisor Pete Vander Poel
Fresno County District Attorney Lisa Smittcamp
Tulare County District Attorney Tim Ward
Clovis City Councilmember Bob Whalen

On the Democratic side, 2020 nominee Phil Arballo said that, while he’d already announced a bid against Nunes, he wasn’t sure if he’d be running in the special for what is currently a 52-46 Trump seat. “When the timeline of Nunes’ retirement & subsequent events becomes more clear Phil will decide what the appropriate path forward will be,” said Arballo’s team. Andrew Janz, the 2018 nominee who unsuccessfully ran for mayor of Fresno last year, does not appear to have said anything yet.

● GA-07: State Rep. Donna McLeod announced Tuesday that she was joining the May Democratic primary for the new Gwinnett County-based 7th District, a move that will put her in conflict with two Democratic incumbents in the Atlanta suburbs. McLeod will face freshman Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux, whose current 7th District makes up the majority of this new safely blue constituency, as well as Rep. Lucy McBath, who decided to run here after the GOP’s gerrymander turned her 6th District dark red. A runoff would take place in July if no one wins at least 50% of the vote.

​​McLeod last month previewed her arguments for why voters should fire both congresswomen when she declared, “Neither lady has lived in Gwinnett County like I have for 21 years.” ​​McLeod said that, while she saw McBath as “a fine lady,” she “has no idea what Gwinnett County has been fighting for.” (None of Gwinnett County is located in McBath’s current constituency.)

​​McLeod, meanwhile, focused far less on geography than ideology when she laid out why it was time to part ways with Bourdeaux, who already represents most of Gwinnett County. She took issue with that congresswoman for being one of the nine renegade Democratic moderates who threatened to derail Biden’s Build Back Better agenda if they didn’t get a vote on Congress’ bipartisan infrastructure bill first. “Pouring concrete and asphalt is no more important than universal pre-K,” the state representative argued.

​​McLeod, by contrast, argued that she had been part of the movement that helped transform her county from a Republican bastion into a Democratic-friendly area, saying, “It took decades for Gwinnett County to become a force to be reckoned with in the Democratic Party and that took a lot of work. I was there from day one.” ​​McLeod herself narrowly lost a 2016 race for the state House but decisively won two years later and kept her new seat blue in 2020.

● IL-03: State Rep. Delia Ramirez on Wednesday became the second major Democrat to launch a bid for the new 3rd District, a 70-28 Biden seat that the Democratic legislature drew up to be the state’s second plurality-Latino constituency. Chicago Alderman Gilbert Villegas was already running in the June primary, but while others have plenty of time to jump in before the March filing deadline, state Sen. Omar Aquino took his own name out of contention by endorsing Ramirez.

● KY-03: State Rep. Josie Raymond has announced that she won’t run to succeed her fellow Democrat, retiring Rep. John Yarmuth, in this Louisville district. Another Democrat, state Rep. McKenzie Cantrell, has meanwhile filed to run for re-election, but she says she could still run for Congress depending on how redistricting shakes out.

On the Republican side, Secretary of State Michael Adams has taken himself out of contention. No major Republicans have launched any campaigns here, but that would certainly change if the GOP legislature makes use of its veto-proof majorities to gerrymander what is currently a safely blue constituency.  

● MA-03: Former state Sen. Dean Tran filed FEC paperwork this week for a potential bid against Democratic Rep. Lori Trahan, but let’s just say he’d hardly be an ideal recruit even for the always-beleaguered Massachusetts Republican Party in this 62-35 Biden seat.

As the Boston Globe writes, Tran lost re-election in 2020 months after he “was stripped of his leadership post within the Senate GOP caucus and, in an extraordinary step, barred from interacting with his staff except through official e-mails after fellow senators accused him of breaking Senate rules and potentially state law.” The Senate Committee on Ethics later found evidence he’d directed his legislative staff to do campaign work for him, a report Tran called “libelous.” The allegations were turned over to state authorities, who this week would neither confirm nor deny that they are investigating Tran.

Despite all of this, though, Tran hardly seems done with politics: An advisor for the former senator told the paper that he would likely decide whether or not to run after the end of the year.

● NC-04, NC-07, NC-Sen: Former Republican Rep. Renee Ellmers announced Wednesday that she’d try to return to Congress by campaigning for the new and open 4th District, a seat that Donald Trump won 53-45, but she ran into some big complications even before the state Supreme Court delayed the primary (see our NC Redistricting item).

Former football player Bo Hines is currently running for the 7th District even though he lives in the 4th, but a big shakeup could be coming. Jack Minor, who is a former chief of staff to ex-Rep. Mark Walker, told Politico that an agreement was reached over the weekend where Walker would drop his Senate campaign in order to run for the 7th, Hines would switch to the 4th, and both would get Trump’s endorsement. (Ellmers Twitter bio includes “Trump won” and features a pinned Tweet with three arrows pointing to a missive from Trump that was removed along with the rest of his account.)

Hines himself didn’t respond to questions about a potential move after he emerged from a Wednesday meeting with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a man that, as we’ll discuss, Ellmers has had a very complicated relationship with. The GOP field in the 4th already includes state Rep. John Szoka and former Fayetteville Mayor Nat Robertson.

Ellmers herself represented part of the greater Raleigh area in the House from 2011 to 2017 in a brief career that was defined by some very wild swings of fortune. Ellmers, who was a nurse at the time, attracted little attention when she kicked off her 2010 bid against longtime Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge in what was then the 2nd District. However, the GOP wave, plus Etheridge’s bad response to conservative video trackers, helped her pull off a 49.5-48.7 upset.

GOP mapmakers soon redrew North Carolina’s congressional map in time for the 2012 elections, and Ellmers went from running in a swing seat designed to protect Etheridge to a gerrymandered and reliably Republican district. Ellmers had no trouble winning her next two general elections, including a high-profile 2014 contest against American Idol runner-up Clay Aiken that she prevailed in by a 59-41 margin. However, Ellmers was never very popular with the GOP rank-and-file, and she only won renomination with less than 60% of the vote in both cycles.

Things began to truly collapse for Ellmers in 2015, though, when she pissed off the anti-tax Club for Growth for voting to raise the debt ceiling and reauthorize the dreaded Export-Import Bank, and social conservatives were also unhappy with her for suggesting to congressional leadership that an ultra-extreme measure to restrict abortion access just might be bad for the party.

Ellmers also had to deal with unsubstantiated rumors that she had an affair with McCarthy, something they both denied had ever happened. That year, Ellmers sounded incredibly reluctant to support McCarthy against Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz in the race to succeed John Boehner as speaker. She relayed that only Chaffetz had contacted her, and added of McCarthy, “I can’t vote for someone who doesn’t ask for my vote. I’m apparently not high on his priority list.” (The speaker’s gavel would end up going to Paul Ryan.)

Ellmers was already facing a tough 2016 primary before the courts ordered the state legislature to redraw their congressional map, and this time, the boundaries the GOP crafted worked out very badly for her. She ended up competing in a primary for the new 2nd District against fellow Rep. George Holding, who represented about twice as much of the new seat and had far more money and allies. Trump delivered a very late endorsement to Ellmers just days before the primary, but that was far from enough to prevent Holding from beating her 53-24.

Trump gave Ellmers a consolation prize the following year when he gave her the job of running the Atlanta office of the Department of Health and Human Services, but she wasn’t done with running for office yet. Ellmers entered the 2020 primary for lieutenant governor but took fifth place with a mere 7% of the vote.

● NY-03: Newsday reports that former North Hempstead Town Supervisor Jon Kaiman is considering running to succeed Rep. Tom Suozzi, a fellow Democrat who is leaving to run for governor. Kaiman sought this Long Island seat when it opened up in 2016 but ended up getting badly outspent by Suozzi and two other intra-party foes; Suozzi ultimately won the nomination with 36%, while Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern and Kaiman were well behind with 22% each.

● NY-11: Former state Assembly staffer Michael DeCillis has ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination and endorsed former Rep. Max Rose.

● OH-13: Attorney Shay Hawkins announced Wednesday that he would seek the Republican nod for the new 13th District, a suburban Cleveland and Akron seat that Joe Biden narrowly took 50-49 under the GOP’s newly-drawn gerrymander. Hawkins will take on Trump-backed former White House aide Max Miller, a self-funder who ended September with $980,000 on-hand, in the primary.

Hawkins, who would be the first African American Republican to represent Ohio in Congress, previously worked as a congressional aide before challenging Democratic state Rep. Phil Robinson in 2020. Hawkins ended up losing 51-49, a close result that Cleveland.com says left local GOP leaders impressed.

No notable Democrats are currently running here, but that may be about to change. State Rep. Emilia Sykes, who had the unenviable task of serving as a Democratic member on the GOP-dominated sham bipartisan redistricting commission (Team Blue’s other commissioner was her father, state Sen. Vernon Sykes), also said Wednesday that she was stepping down as minority leader this month. Sykes said she was “considering any and all options to continue to serve my community, whether that’s in elected office or as a private citizen,” but plenty of Ohio politicos think she’s planning to run for the 13th District.

● OR-04: Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle still has the Democratic primary to herself following longtime Rep. Peter DeFazio’s retirement announcement last week, but a few others have expressed interest in getting in. Both state Sen. Sara Gelser Blouin and state Rep. Marty Wilde told Capital Chronicle last week that they were considering, while the story mentioned Coos County Commissioner Melissa Cribbins as a possibility. State Rep. Julie Fahey, though, quickly took her name out of contention.

● TX-01: Businessman Joe McDaniel has joined the Republican primary for this safely red open seat in East Texas.

● TX-12: Longtime Rep. Kay Granger on Wednesday unveiled endorsements from Sen. John Cornyn, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and 11 of her 22 colleagues in Texas’ Republican House delegation. Granger faces a primary rematch in March against self-funder Chris Putnam, whom she beat 58-42 last year.

● TX-15: Hidalgo County Health Authority Ivan Melendez last week filed paperwork for a potential bid for the Democratic nod in this open 51-48 Trump seat, a move that comes just ahead of the Dec. 13 filing deadline. Melendez promised to convey “more about my plans to serve our community in the coming days.”

● TX-37: Julie Oliver, who was the 2018 and 2020 Democratic nominee in the current 25th Congressional District, has announced that she will not wage a primary campaign against Rep. Lloyd Doggett in the new 37th District.

Legislatures

● Special Elections: Here is the rundown of Tuesday’s contest in New Hampshire:

NH-HD-Rockingham 6: Republican Jodi Nelson held this seat for her party by beating former Democratic state Rep. Mary Eisner 59-41.

This district, which is located in the town of Derry, backed Donald Trump 53-46 last year after supporting him by a larger 55-40 spread in 2016. Nelson’s win brings the GOP majority back up to 207-188, with vacancies in the remaining five seats.

Prosecutors

● Suffolk County, MA District Attorney: The U.S. Senate on Wednesday voted along party lines to confirm Rachael Rollins, whose 2018 election represented a big victory for criminal justice reformers, as U.S. attorney for Massachusetts, which will make her the first Black woman to hold this post.

It will be up to Republican Gov. Charlie Baker to choose the new district attorney for Suffolk County, which includes Boston and three nearby communities, a decision he says is coming “shortly.“ The office will be on the ballot next year for a full four-year term, and the winner of the September Democratic primary should have no trouble in the general election.

Baker has enjoyed a good relationship with many prominent Massachusetts Democrats during his time in office, but Rollins is not one of them. The district attorney and the Baker administration have clashed over criminal justice reforms since the beginning of her tenure, and Rollins’ allies have worried that she could be replaced with someone far more conservative. Rollins has publicly urged the governor to appoint her top assistant, Daniel Mulhern, in her place, but Baker is free to ignore her recommendation.