A wild night in the commonwealth: After holding a 55-45 majority for just two years, Virginia Democrats appear to have lost five seats in the House of Delegates, tying the 100-seat chamber 50-50. 

With a likely legal challenges yet to come, the final makeup of the Virginia House could yet change. But if the current situation holds, Democrats and Republicans will be at parity—with no one empowered to break ties.

So … what now?

Glad you asked!

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    <a href="#update-1635948531000">
            Wednesday, Nov 3, 2021 ·  2:08:51 PM +00:00

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      Carolyn Fiddler
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    Well, it looks like this is a moot point yet again—as of very early Wednesday morning, Democrats appear to have lost six seats. After just two years in the majority, Democrats have dropped back to 49 out of 100 House members.

  
  
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    <a href="#update-1635951233000">
            Wednesday, Nov 3, 2021 ·  2:53:53 PM +00:00

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      Carolyn Fiddler
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    Welp, now it looks like Virginia Democrats are <a href="https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20211102/house/">down to 48 out of 100 seats</a>. 

This situation is not entirely without precedent, so while there are few hard and fast rules governing the situation, we have a pretty good idea of what will happen when the Virginia House of Delegates is evenly split between the parties.

After the 1997 elections and a few specials (the result of Republican Gov.-elect Jim Gilmore appointing Democrats to positions in his administration), Republicans held 49 seats to Democrats’ 50, with one independent member caucusing with Republicans. The State Board of Elections, despite having a 2-1 Republican majority, resisted pressure from the governor and GOP lawmakers to expedite the certification of the results of the three special elections that boosted the Republican caucus to 50, so on the first day of the legislative session in 1998, Democrats still had a majority in the chamber. That majority’s last gasp was to elect Democratic speaker, allowing the party to control committee assignments and the chamber’s agenda—despite the even split.

Republicans cried foul and engaged in some theatrics (turning their backs on the speaker’s dais, pounding their desks and shouting “shame,” that sort of thing), but there was nothing they could do. The very next day, the special election results were certified, and the Republican caucus ranks swelled to 50. Democrats and Republicans negotiated a power-sharing agreement, under which 19 House standing committees had Democratic and Republican co-chairs and equal party representation. However, if the co-chairs of any standing committee could not agree on how to conduct committee business, a special rule kicked in: one party’s chair would preside the first year of the biennium, and the other party’s the second. (That agreement was later obviated when Republicans won outright control of the House the following year.)

This history indicates that one of the following scenarios will come to pass:

Democrats try every tactic and trick in the book to delay seating one of the new Republican members until they can elect a Dems as speaker. Republicans will howl in righteous outrage, and both parties will enter a power-sharing agreement similar to the 1998 template.
Democrats and Republicans somehow agree to elect a compromise House speaker, whose power will likely be constrained by specific rules, and they’ll then enter into a power-sharing agreement.
ANARCHY

Okay, scenario 3 isn’t really in the cards, but the point remains that there’s no way to know with any certainty how this situation is going to shake out.

Watching Democrats lose majority control of the Virginia House just two years after winning it is disappointing, but it’s worth noting that some of these contests came down to just a couple hundred votes—underscoring the importance of turning out every possible vote in any election year, no matter what.