The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● NY-Gov, NY-03: Rep. Tom Suozzi announced Monday that he would challenge New York Gov. Kathy Hochul for the Democratic nomination in June rather than seek a fourth term in his Long Island-based 3rd Congressional District, which backed Joe Biden 55-44 in its current form. The congressman, as we’ll discuss, previously sought the Empire State’s top job in 2006 but lost the primary in a landslide.  

Suozzi, who had briefly considered becoming a New York City deputy mayor rather than run for office, joins state Attorney General Tish James and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams in taking on Hochul, who became governor this summer after Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace. The only recent primary poll we’ve seen that’s tested Suozzi was a mid-November Data for Progress survey for consultant Neal Kwatra on behalf of an unnamed donor, and it presented the new candidate with some very dispiriting news: Hochul beat James 39-24, with Williams and Suozzi at just 9% and 7%, respectively.

But Suozzi, who previously served as county executive of populous Nassau County, is hoping he’ll be able to stand out in this still-forming field by presenting himself as an experienced moderate leader. The congressman, who proclaimed himself a “common-sense Democrat,” launched his campaign with a call to cut taxes, hire more police officers, and modify the state’s landmark 2019 bail-reform law. “I believe that I am saying and doing what the people are thinking,” he told Newsday, adding, “They have had it with this far-left and far-right finger pointing. They want common sense … with management experience and ability and a vision for New York to make it more affordable.”

Campaign Action

Suozzi himself has had a long career in New York politics that’s seen some big successes and huge setbacks. In 2001, he made history when he became the first Democrat to win the Nassau County executive’s office in more than 30 years, a victory that marked the end of the old and once-all powerful local Republican machine.

While Suozzi easily won re-election four years later, though, his 2006 campaign for governor was the start of what would prove to be a disastrous political decade for him. The county executive enjoyed the vociferous backing of Home Depot founder Ken Langone, who sought payback against then-state Attorney General Eliot Spitzer for his crusade to uproot Wall Street corruption. The gambit utterly failed, as Spitzer won 82-18 statewide and even carried Nassau County 59-41.

Suozzi ran for a third term as county executive in 2009 at a time when the Great Recession was devastating Democrats nationwide, but his 386-vote loss to Republican Ed Mangano still came as a complete and utter shocker to almost everyone. The defeated incumbent seems to have been just as surprised as the rest of the county, since he had $2 million left to spend in his war chest.

The state went on to seize control of Nassau’s finances in 2011, and when Suozzi kicked off his comeback attempt against Mangano two years later, he initially looked like the man to beat. The Democrat, though, lost the rematch by a brutal 59-41 margin, demonstrating that the local political climate remained just as bad for him as ever.

Suozzi’s career looked over after that, but he unexpectedly got the chance for one more comeback attempt in 2016 when Democratic Rep. Steve Israel decided to retire from the 3rd Congressional District. The former executive took part in a crowded Democratic primary and beat Israel’s endorsed candidate, Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern, 35-22 despite being decisively outspent by Stern and another opponent.

Suozzi went on to win a competitive general election against Republican state Sen. Jack Martins 53-47 as Hillary Clinton was carrying his seat by a similar 52-46 spread, and this time, he had no trouble winning re-election.

Redistricting

● AR Redistricting: Arkansas’ all-Republican Board of Reapportionment, which handles legislative redistricting, voted unanimously on Monday to adopt new maps for the state Senate and House. The maps will now be final, barring any legal challenges.

● FL Redistricting: A committee in Florida’s Republican-run state House has released two new draft congressional maps, both of which feature more aggressive gerrymanders than found in the maps put forth by Republicans in the state Senate earlier this month. The committee also released a pair of proposals for its own chamber; previously, the Senate published four plans for itself.

● MD Redistricting: A joint committee in Maryland’s Democratic-run legislature has advanced a congressional redistricting plan on a party-line vote, though the Baltimore Sun reports that legislators “could continue to revise the proposed map, or even replace it altogether” when they convene for a special session on Dec. 6.

The map would target Rep. Andy Harris, the lone Republican in the state’s delegation, by making his 1st District bluer, though it would do so half-heartedly. According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the proposed 1st would have voted for Joe Biden 49-48 compared to the 59-39 margin it gave Donald Trump under the current lines (and Trump would have won the proposed 1st by 51-43 in 2016). But given Maryland’s deep blue lean, it’s readily possible to a draw a map where every district went for Biden by at least 20 points.

● SC Redistricting: South Carolina’s Republican-run state Senate has released a new congressional redistricting plan, the chief goal of which is to make the fast-growing 1st District redder. Under the proposal, the 1st, which Republican Rep. Nancy Mace flipped last year, would have voted 54-45 for Donald Trump, compared to 52-46 under the present map.

Senate

● IA-Sen: Former Crawford County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer, citing the death of his nephew in August, ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination last week.

● PA-Sen: Former Rep. Keith Rothfus told the conservative Washington Examiner last week that he was considering seeking the Republican nomination for Senate now that Army veteran Sean Parnell has suspended his own campaign. Rothfus lost his bid for a fourth term 56-44 to Democrat Conor Lamb, who is currently running for the upper chamber, in 2018 after court-ordered redistricting led to an incumbent vs. incumbent general election.

● Polls: The British firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies has released a raft of Senate polls:

<strong>FL-Sen</strong>: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-inc): 48, Rep. Val Demings (D): 36 (<a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/the-view-from-florida-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=the-view-from-florida-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention">Aug.</a>: 48-37 Rubio)
<strong>FL-Sen</strong>: Sen. Rubio (R-inc): 46, former Rep. Alan Grayson (D): 37 (<a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/the-view-from-florida-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=the-view-from-florida-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention">Aug.</a>: 48-36 Rubio)
<strong>GA-Sen</strong>: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 48, former NFL player Herschel Walker (R): 42
<strong>NC-Sen</strong>: Former Gov. Pat McCrory (R): 42, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D): 40
<strong>NC-Sen</strong>: Rep. Ted Budd (R): 40, Beasley (D): 39

The Georgia Senate Republican primary includes several other candidates, though Walker has held massive leads over them in the few polls we’ve seen. Team Blue’s field in North Carolina, meanwhile, also includes state Sen. Jeff Jackson, who like Beasley has raised a credible amount of money.

Governors

● AK-Gov: Freshman state Rep. Christopher Kurka announced Monday that he would challenge his fellow Republican, Gov. Mike Dunleavy in next year’s top-four primary. Kurka entered the race with the backing of Joe Miller, whose 2010 primary win against Sen. Lisa Murkowski made him a national tea party hero until he lost to Murkowski’s write-in campaign months later. The state representative launched his campaign weeks after he learned that the state’s new map placed him in the same seat as one of his allies.

It may seem hard to believe that anyone could run to the right of Dunleavy, whose draconian 2019 budget cuts inspired a since-aborted recall campaign against him, but Kurka may have the credentials to pull it off. Kurka, who is a former director of Alaska Right to Life, has spent his year in office comparing officials trying to enforce public health measures to Nazis. Earlier this month, he co-sponsored an event that served as a platform for COVID-19 conspiracy theorists, including speakers who accused Dr. Anthony Fauci of being behind the disease.

● GA-Gov: The Georgia Chamber of Commerce, which remained neutral through the entire 2018 campaign, endorsed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp on Monday.

● MA-Gov: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker said Monday he was “pretty close" to deciding if he’ll seek a third term next year, and he may actually mean it. While the governor has spent months insisting his choice would come “soon,” he acknowledged this time, “When you’re 65 years old, ‘soon’ can cover a lot of territory … We’re getting pretty close.” Baker also shot down whatever speculation there was that he could run as an independent in order to avoid a primary against Trump-backed former state Rep. Geoff Diehl.

The governor has been raising money for months for a potential campaign and has another event set for Dec. 14, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s made up his mind. Instead, the Boston Globe writes that “those close to Baker have for weeks described him as seeming torn, and close-lipped, about whether he will run.” The upcoming fundraiser’s co-organizers also told the paper that, while they hoped the incumbent would be on the ballot in 2022, they didn’t actually know what he’d be doing.

● MN-Gov: Axios reports that businessman Kendall Qualls, who was the 2020 Republican nominee for the 3rd Congressional District, is thinking about running for governor and that his “decision is expected by early 2022 at the latest.”

● TX-Gov: Actor Matthew McConaughey said Sunday that he would not be running for governor next year.

● Polls: British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies also released several gubernatorial polls:

<strong>AZ-Gov</strong>: Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D): 43, former Rep. Matt Salmon (R): 35
<strong>AZ-Gov</strong>: Hobbs (D): 41, former TV anchor Kari Lake (R): 37
<strong>FL-Gov</strong>: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-inc): 46, Rep. Charlie Crist (D): 40 (<a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/the-view-from-florida-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=the-view-from-florida-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention">Aug.</a>: 48-38 DeSantis)
<strong>FL-Gov</strong>: DeSantis (R-inc): 50, Nikki Fried (D): 37 (<a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/the-view-from-florida-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention/?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=the-view-from-florida-approval-of-political-leaders-and-hypothetical-voting-intention">Aug.</a>: 48-38 DeSantis)
<strong>GA-Gov</strong>: Gov. Brian Kemp (R-inc): 47, 2018 nominee Stacey Abrams (D): 44
<strong>GA-Gov</strong>: Abrams (D): 45, former state Rep. Vernon Jones (R): 40
<strong>TX-Gov</strong>: 2018 Senate nominee Beto O'Rourke (D): 44, Gov. Greg Abbott (R-inc): 43
<strong>TX-Gov</strong>: Abbott (R-inc): 45, 2020 presidential candidate Julián Castro (D): 39

Several other Republicans and Democrats are running for governor in Arizona in addition to the candidates tested here. Redfield & Wilton also did not poll state Sen. Annette Taddeo, who is seeking the Democratic nod in Florida.

Finally in Texas, Castro has given no indication that he’s interested in taking on Abbott.

House

● CA-14: San Mateo Councilmember Diane Papan announced Monday that she would run for the state Assembly rather than campaign for this safely blue open congressional district. Another Democrat, San Mateo County Supervisor Dave Pine, also has taken his name out of contention by endorsing Assemblyman Kevin Mullin.

● CA-34: Former prosecutor David Kim, who lost last year’s all-Democratic general election to Rep. Jimmy Gomez by a shockingly small 53-47 margin, has filed FEC paperwork for a potential second bid.

● GA-06: Army veteran Harold Earls announced last week that he was ending his campaign for the Republican nomination in a seat that the GOP’s new gerrymander has made safely red.

● IL-06: The SEIU Illinois State Council has thrown its support behind Rep. Marie Newman ahead of her June Democratic primary against fellow incumbent Sean Casten.

● NC-02: Buck Newton, who was the 2016 Republican nominee for attorney general, announced Monday that he would run for his old job in the state Senate rather than campaign for this open congressional seat.

● NC-14: State Sen. Chuck Edwards, a Republican who has reportedly been considering a bid for this open seat, has “an important announcement" set for Tuesday.  

● NY-03: Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi’s decision to run for governor (see our NY-Gov item above) opens up his 3rd Congressional District, which in its current form includes the Long Island towns of Huntington, North Hempstead, and Oyster Bay along with a portion of Queens. This constituency a decade ago was swingy turf, with Barack Obama winning it just 51-48 in 2012, but like many highly educated suburban areas, it moved hard to the left during the Trump era: Hillary Clinton carried it 52-46 in 2016, while Joe Biden took it 55-44 last year.

However, there’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding the race to succeed Suozzi. It remains unclear whether the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission will be able to reach an agreement on new maps, or whether (as appears more likely) Democrats will use their legislative supermajorities to draw new districts. Team Blue also suffered some big setbacks in this month’s local elections in Nassau and Suffolk counties, so a bad political climate could leave Republicans with an opening even in a Democratic-drawn seat.

The only Democratic candidate following Suozzi’s departure is health care advocate Melanie D’Arrigo, a progressive activist who lost last year’s primary to the incumbent 66-26 and launched her second campaign back in May. D’Arrigo ended September with just over $95,000 on-hand, and she’s likely to have company before long.

Spectrum News’ Nick Reisman reports that Assemblyman Ed Braunstein is considering joining the Democratic primary, while the New York Times writes that DNC member Robert Zimmerman and Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan are “thought to be eying the seat.” Zimmerman, who runs a public relations firm and often appears on cable news, is a longtime party fundraiser who mulled a primary campaign against Suozzi last cycle but didn’t end up going for it.

On the Republican side, 2020 nominee George Santos launched his second bid earlier this year and had $250,000 on-hand at the end of September. Santos generated little attention during his first try until just after Election Day, when he held a 50-49 edge over Suozzi among the ballots that had already been tabulated. That lead proved to be a mirage, though, and Suozzi emerged with a comfortable 56-43 victory once all the votes were counted.

● OH-09: Republican state Sen. Theresa Gavarone has filed FEC paperwork for a potential bid against Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a new district that backed Donald Trump 51-47 under the new GOP gerrymander, a huge shift from Joe Biden’s 59-40 victory under the current lines. Gavarone should know better than almost anyone else how much this constituency has changed, though, since she was co-chair of the legislature’s redistricting committee; the senator, however, lives in the new 5th District, which is held by GOP Rep. Bob Latta.

● OH-13: Attorney Shay Hawkins said Tuesday that he was interested in seeking the Republican nomination for this newly drawn open seat, which Joe Biden carried 50-49, and added, “I will make my plans known in the coming days.”

If Hawkins ran, as one unnamed source told the The Plain Dealer's Andrew Tobias that they expected him to do, he would go up against Trump-backed former White House aide Max Miller in the primary. Tobias adds that Hawkins impressed party leaders last year when he narrowly lost his general election for a state House seat.

● TX-01: Smith County Judge Nathaniel Moran has a “special campaign announcement” planned for Thursday that notably includes a stop in Longview, a city that is outside of his county. Moran has been considering a bid to succeed his fellow Republican, Rep. Louie Gohmert, in this safely red East Texas seat.

Meanwhile, it remains unclear just how interested state Rep. Matt Schaefer is in joining the primary. Schaefer tweeted on Nov. 21 that he was seeking re-election to his current post, an announcement that came just one day before Gohmert revealed that he’d be running for state attorney general. The conservative Washington Times, however, wrote on Thursday that Schaefer was reconsidering. The filing deadline is Dec. 13, so we’ll have our answers soon.

● TX-30: Democratic state Rep. Jasmine Crockett on Wednesday launched her bid for this safely blue Dallas seat with an endorsement from her would-be predecessor, retiring Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson.

Fellow state Rep. Carl Sherman had been considering a campaign of his own, but he sounds very unlikely to go for it now that the incumbent has picked a candidate. “I respect the wishes of the congresswoman to be succeeded by a woman,” he said, adding, “Black women are the bedrock of the Democrat Party and their voice in Congress is crucial, especially in North Texas.” (Both Johnson and Crockett are Black women.)

Another state representative, Toni Rose, meanwhile filed to run for re-election on Wednesday.

● TX-37: Donna Imam, who was the 2020 Democratic nominee against Republican Rep. John Carter in the current 31st Congressional District, announced Monday that she’d challenge veteran Rep. Lloyd Doggett for renomination in the new and safely blue 37th District around Austin.

Doggett, who currently holds the 35th District, only represents 11% of the new seat, while another 8% are located in the boundaries of the existing 31st District. The congressman, though, is a longtime fixture in Austin politics, and he has the backing of numerous local elected officials.

● WA-08: King County Councilmember Reagan Dunn said Monday that he was entering next year’s top-two primary to take on Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier in what is currently a swing seat. Dunn joins two fellow Republicans in the race: 2020 nominee Jesse Jensen, who held Schrier to a surprisingly close 52-48 victory even as Joe Biden was winning the district 52-46; and attorney Matt Larkin, who carried the 8th District 51-49 last year in his unsuccessful campaign for attorney general.

Dunn is the son of the late Rep. Jennifer Dunn, who represented previous versions of this constituency from 1993 to 2005. The younger Dunn joined the King County Council in 2005 and lost the 2012 race for attorney general to his Democratic colleague, Bob Ferguson, by a 53-47 margin.

Judges

● PA Commonwealth Court: Following a mandatory recount that concluded shortly before the Thanksgiving holiday, Republican Drew Crompton conceded defeat in the race for Pennsylvania’s Commonwealth Court to Democrat Lori Dumas, whose victory flipped a GOP-held seat. As a result, Republicans will soon see their majority slip to 5-3 after another Republican seat becomes vacant in January. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf will be able to fill that vacancy on the court, which among other things handles election law disputes, but any pick he makes will have to be confirmed by the GOP-controlled state Senate.

Legislatures

● Special Elections: Our recap of last week’s special election in Mississippi is below, followed by a preview of Tuesday’s action in Massachusetts:

MS SD-32: Rod Hickman, who had the backing of the state Democratic establishment, beat Minh Duong 60-40 in the officially nonpartisan race for this open Democratic seat. The chamber returns to a 36-16 Republican supermajority.

MA 4th Essex District: Two candidates are competing to succeed longtime Republican state Rep. Bradford Hill, who resigned from the state House to join the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, for a seat in the North Shore region north of Boston. Hillary Clinton carried this district 56-36 in 2016, while Hill won his 17th term last year without any opposition.

The Democrats are fielding women’s health advocate Jamie Zahlaway, who challenged Rep. Seth Moulton in last year’s primary for the 6th Congressional District and lost 78-12, while the GOP has nominated Rowley Town Selectman Robert Snow. Democrats hold a 129-29 supermajority in a chamber that also includes one independent, and only this seat is currently vacant.

Mayors

● Atlanta, GA Mayor: SurveyUSA takes a look at Tuesday’s nonpartisan runoff for WXIA-TV and finds City Council President Felicia Moore leading City Councilman Andre Dickens 46-40. That’s very different from the only other runoff survey we’ve seen, a University of Georgia poll that gave Dickens a 43-37 edge.

Moore outpaced Dickens by a wide 41-23 in the first round of voting on Nov. 2, but the councilman has picked up several notable endorsements since then. Rep. Nikema Williams and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, whose constituencies each take up most of this very blue city, each recently joined outgoing Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms and former Mayor Andrew Young in Dickens’ corner; another former mayor, Shirley Franklin, also backed Dickens in October.

Obituaries

● Former Rep. Carrie Meek, a Democrat whose 1992 win made her one of the first three African Americans to represent Florida in Congress since 1876, died Sunday at the age of 95. Meek retired in 2003 and was succeeded by her son, Kendrick Meek.

The older Meek, who was the daughter of two sharecroppers, worked as a college instructor before she won a packed 1978 race to succeed the late state Rep. Gwen Cherry, who was the first Black woman to serve in the Florida legislature, in a Miami-area seat. Kendrick Meek recalled that her budget was so small that the campaign signs were entirely hand-made by college students who drew them with “waterproof markers, [writing] ‘Carrie Meek.’ And then we put a black and white picture [of her] in the middle of it and put a little cellophane over it.”

Meek won a promotion to the state Senate in 1982, which made her the first Black woman to be elected to the upper chamber. A decade later she defeated state Rep. Darryl Reaves 83-9 in the primary for a safely blue congressional seat, then numbered the 17th District: Fellow Democrats Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown also won that year, which made the trio the Sunshine State’s first Black members of Congress since the end of Reconstruction.

International

● Germany: Two months after Germany’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly defeated the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a coalition agreement has been reached between the SPD, the Greens, and the classically liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP). The agreement will see SPD leader Olaf Scholz installed as chancellor, FPD leader Christian Lindner appointed finance minister, and Greens co-leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck appointed foreign minister and minister of economics and climate protection, respectively.

While all three parties share a progressive social outlook, the FDP is significantly more conservative on economic issues and has warned against further spending and higher taxes. Despite this potential pitfall, the agreement features a minimum wage increase to 12 euros (approximately $13.50) an hour, a quicker end to the use of coal power, and a promise to build 400,000 new homes a year. On the social front, the agreement includes the legalization of marijuana (a first in Europe), increased immigration, the ability for trans citizens to self-identify their gender, and a lowering of the voting age to 16.

The new government is expected to be sworn in sometime the week of Dec. 6, after the SPD’s convention this weekend finalizes their slate of cabinet ministers.