The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● IL Redistricting: On Friday, the day after both chambers of the Democratic-led state legislature passed Illinois’ new congressional map in a late-night session, Democratic Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman each said that they’d run for the new 6th District in Chicago’s western suburbs, while Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger announced his retirement from the House (see our IL-16 item below for more on that latter development).

Republicans may also be in for their own incumbent vs. incumbent primary between Reps. Mike Bost and Mary Miller in the 12th District in downstate Illinois, but only Bost has confirmed he’s running again; as we’ll discuss, Miller could instead decide to take on fellow Rep. Rodney Davis.

Before we talk about both of those pairs of double-bunked members, as well as what the new map could mean for other 2022 congressional races in Illinois, we’ll hit Thursday’s drama that kept political watchers guessing throughout the day how things would end. Legislative Democrats earlier in the day released their third congressional redistricting plan which, just like the second incarnation, created a new Latino 3rd District in the Chicago area by excising the northern “earmuff” from Democratic Rep. Chuy Garcia’s 4th District. That was still unhappy news, though, for both Newman, who represents the current 3rd District, and Casten, who did not relish the idea of a difficult primary.

Greg Hinz of Crain’s, meanwhile, suggested that day that Democratic leaders may not have had enough votes to pass the map, due to unspecified concerns “concentrated in the Latino caucus.” Throughout Thursday it wasn’t clear if Democrats would be able to finish redistricting this year because a 60% supermajority was required for passage during the legislature’s session that was set to end that day—a threshold Democrats only narrowly exceed, particularly in the House. That bar would get lowered to a simple majority should lawmakers punt and reconvene in January, but doing so would likely have required that they delay the start of the candidate petitioning process, which is set to begin Jan. 13.

Campaign Action

Late Thursday, though, Democrats introduced a fourth map similar to the third, but with one important change: Newman’s hometown of La Grange was moved from the new 6th District to Garcia’s 4th District. Newman, who was elected the previous year, blasted this revision as “a clear attempt to appease one person and a small handful of affluent insiders,” but she was powerless to stop it. Democrats in each chamber went on to pass the map with exactly the numbers required.

It’s now up to Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker to sign the new boundaries, which will reduce Illinois’ congressional districts from 18 to 17, into law, but the Chicago Tribune says this is “expected” to happen. Altogether, Biden would have carried 14 of the state’s 17 new seats compared to 12 of the 18 existing districts.

We’ll start with our look at the new 6th District, which, according to data from Dave’s Redistricting App, supported Joe Biden 55-44. Our initial analysis finds that 41% of the residents of the new 6th District are Newman’s constituents compared to 23% for Casten. However, Politico’s Ally Mutnick tweets that Casten’s portion of the new constituency contains far more Democratic voters, writing, “Biden won Newman’s area by 3.8% but Biden won Casten’s area by 20.2%, per an analysis shared with Politico.”

The new 12th District well to the south is overwhelmingly red turf at 71-28 Trump, so all the action will be in the GOP primary. Bost represents 53% of the new seat compared to 47% for Miller, and he quickly made it clear Friday he’d be running here.

That was a far different response than Miller, whom Politico says “began to scurry away when” asked, but she doesn’t sound like she plans to retire after just one term. When the congresswoman finally provided a response to whether she’d be willing to take on a fellow incumbent she replied, “I have no idea, but I can say I laughed when I read that they think they’re terrorizing me. Because I am not scared.” The Belleville-News Democrats’ Kelsey Landis writes Miller’s family farm is located about a mile south of the new 12th District in the 13th, a new seat that supported Biden 54-43 and that would likely be unwinnable for the far-right congresswoman.

A Bost-Miller match still isn’t guaranteed, though, as Landis speculates that Miller could instead decide to go up against a different Republican colleague, Rodney Davis, in the safely red 15th District. Miller might have more appeal to primary voters than Davis, who held a competitive seat for a decade by presenting himself as a moderate, and she’d have a small geographic advantage, as she represents 31% of the new 15th compared to 28% for Davis. A spokesperson for Davis, who previously threatened to run for governor if he wound up in an unfavorable seat, said his boss would “make a formal announcement on his 2022 plans” after Pritzker signs the redistricting bill into law.

The new map, meanwhile, strengthens Democrats in two competitive districts compared to the existing boundaries. Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood’s new 14th District in the Chicago exurbs backed Biden 55-43, while the current seat with the same number supported him just 50-48. The new 17th District along the Iowa border, which will be open because of Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos’ retirement, also went for Biden 53-46, a big shift from Trump’s 50-48 win in the current 17th.

Inexplicably, though, the new map also makes the 14th and 17th a point redder compared to the second version by stranding some blue precincts in surrounding GOP districts. However, Illinois map-drawers haven’t seemed focused on fine-tuning their districts despite their eagerness to pass an aggressive pro-Democratic gerrymander. 

Election Night

● Election Night: Buffalo, Bucks, and Babka: The big night is almost here, and we have a lot of big races to watch on Tuesday. Democrats aren’t just trying to hold their hard-won gains in Virginia, they’re also trying to score big wins in Pennsylvania by flipping a seat on the state Supreme Court and taking the offices of Bucks County district attorney and Erie County executive. Voters in the latter race would also make history by electing the first trans county executive in American history should Democrat Tyler Titus prevail over Republican Brenton Davis.

But that’s not all. Republicans are hoping to take back the Bucks County sheriff’s office and score big wins in Nassau County, New York, where Team Red’s successes in 2009 and 2013 foreshadowed the following year’s red waves. And while there’s little reason for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy to worry about his re-election prospects in New Jersey, both parties are looking to make gains in the state legislature. There’s additionally a very crowded Democratic primary for Florida’s 20th Congressional District as well as special U.S. House races in Ohio.

Oh, that’s not all. We also have on tap a high-profile ballot measure in Minneapolis that would replace the police department with a new Department of Public Safety as well as greatly strengthen the mayor’s office. We have on tap crowded contests for mayor of Atlanta and Minneapolis; showdowns to lead Boston, Cleveland, and Seattle; and a closely watched race in Buffalo, where India Walton is trying to fend off a write-in campaign by Mayor Byron Brown, the four-term incumbent she beat in a June Democratic primary upset. You can find all this, as well as even more, in our hour-by-hour guide to election night.

We’re also pleased to announce that the annual Daily Kos Elections’ prediction contest is back! Once again, the exceptional Green’s Bakery is generously sponsoring our annual prediction contest! For more details, including contest rules and our submission form, click here.

We’ll be liveblogging Tuesday’s election results at Daily Kos Elections starting at 7 PM ET, and tweeting as well. We hope to see you there!

Redistricting

● AR Redistricting: The state Board of Apportionment, which consists of Arkansas’ Republican governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, has released initial draft maps for the state House and Senate. The board plans to vote on the maps on Nov. 29, and you can find detailed maps and population summary data here.

● AZ Redistricting: Arizona’s independent redistricting commission has unanimously voted to adopt draft maps for Congress and the state legislature (both the state Senate and House use the same district lines), setting off a 30-day period for public comments. Commissioners plan to give final approval to new maps by Dec. 22 after incorporating public feedback over the next several weeks. You can find data files for the new maps here, and we have also uploaded the congressional map to Dave’s Redistricting App, which has partisan and racial statistics.

The new congressional map in particular scrambles both the district numbers and the partisan composition of several districts when compared to the current map (one of several criteria requires commissioners to consider competitiveness). Three Democrats would see their seats shift to the right and become much more competitive or even GOP-leaning, while two Republicans would see their districts move considerably to the left to become much more swingy. While the map preserves the current two Latino-majority seats held by Democratic Reps. Raúl Grijalva and Ruben Gallego, it would make it harder for Native American voters, who are a solidly Democratic constituency, to elect their preferred candidates in one district.

Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran’s 1st District in the northeastern part of the state would be renumbered the 2nd District and lurch to the right from backing Joe Biden 50-48 last year under the current lines to supporting Donald Trump 53-45 according to DRA. O’Halleran would likely start at a significant disadvantage if he chooses to seek re-election next year after he won just 52-48 in 2020, a margin of only 3 points after rounding. The new 2nd District’s eligible voter population would also be 21% Native American, making it one of the most heavily Native districts in the country, but unlike the current 1st District where Native voters have a chance to elect their chosen candidates — Democrats — the new 2nd makes that much more difficult.

Elsewhere in the state, retiring Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick’s Tucson-based 2nd District would be renumbered the 6th District and shift from 55-45 Biden to just 51-47 Biden. Fellow Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton’s suburban Phoenix-based 9th District would get renumbered the 4th and move from 61-37 Biden to a much narrower 53-45 Biden.

On the flip side, Republican Rep. David Schweikert’s 6th District in the northern Phoenix suburbs would become the new 1st District and swing from 51-47 Trump to 50-48 Biden. Schweikert faced a hotly contested 2020 election and only won by 52-48, meaning he could be very vulnerable in another Democratic-leaning year. Lastly, Republican Rep. Debbie Lesko’s 8th District in Phoenix’s northwestern suburbs keeps the current district number but zooms leftward from 57-41 Trump to just 50-48 Trump. Meanwhile, Republican Reps. Paul Gosar and Andy Biggs would continue to hold safely red seats.

Thus, Republicans would have a chance to win a 7-2 majority in a favorable year, but Democrats could be able to win a 6-3 advantage if Arizona and the Phoenix suburbs in particular continue to trend blue.

● IA Redistricting: Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds still hasn’t put her signature on the new congressional and legislative maps proposed by the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency, which both chambers of Iowa’s Republican-controlled legislature passed by almost unanimous votes last week, but it’s not too early to analyze the new congressional boundaries. Under this map, just like with the current one, Donald Trump carried the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Districts by small margins while overwhelmingly winning the 4th District in western Iowa.

The new map essentially means that the 1st and 2nd Districts would trade numbers. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson unsurprisingly confirmed Friday that she’d run for the new 2nd District, which is home to over 85% of her current 1st District. Democratic state Sen. Liz Mathis, who announced her bid against Hinson before the new map was released, likewise announced that she’d be continuing her campaign against Hinson. The new 2nd District, which is located in the northeast corner of the state, supported Trump 51.3-46.9, which makes it a tick redder than his 50.8-47.4 showing in the current 1st.

The new 1st District in southeastern Iowa, meanwhile, is home to a similar proportion of Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ current 2nd District, so it would be somewhat surprising if she didn’t run for re-election here. However, Miller-Meeks’ Wapello County home was shifted to the new 3rd District, and the congresswoman hasn’t ruled out running there instead. She said Friday, “I will be evaluating the new districts to determine my next step, which I will be announcing shortly.”

Trump won the new 1st District 50.5-47.6, which is a little more than a point smaller than his 51.1-47.1 performance in the current 2nd. That shift to the left could make all the difference for Miller-Meeks, who won her 2020 race by all of 6 votes.

The new 3rd District, which is home to Des Moines, went for Trump 49.3-48.9, which makes it a little redder than his 49.1-49.0 showing in the current 3rd. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne, who also represents about 85% of this new seat, has not yet announced her 2022 plans, and her team said Friday she was still “weighing options in the third district including running for Congress or running for governor.”

There’s not likely to be much drama in the new 4th District, though, which gave Trump a 62-36 win that wasn’t much different from his 63-36 victory in the current version of the seat. GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra represents just over 80% of the new seat, and there’s no indication that any notable Republicans are considering taking him on in a primary.

Governors

● NJ-Gov: Fairleigh Dickinson University: Phil Murphy (D-inc): 53, Jack Ciattarelli (R): 44 (June: 48-33 Murphy)

● NY-Gov, NY-AG: On Friday, Attorney General Tish James became the first prominent New York Democrat to announce a primary challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul, who ascended from the lieutenant governorship in August after Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace. James’ kickoff video did not mention the incumbent and instead focused on her record in office, including how she “sued the Trump administration 76 times, but who’s counting?”

James also alluded to her investigation into the sexual harassment allegations against Cuomo that directly led to his departure (he announced he was quitting a week after James released a blockbuster report concluding that he’d harassed 11 women and retaliated against at least one). James, without mentioning the ex-governor, told the audience, “I’ve held accountable those who mistreat and harass women in the workplace, no matter how powerful the offenders.”

James would be the first Black woman elected governor of any state, but early polls indicate that she starts out at a disadvantage. An early October poll from Marist showed Hochul leading James 44-28 in what was at the time a hypothetical matchup, while a Siena survey done days later put the incumbent’s edge at 47-31. Other candidates may also run: New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams recently filed paperwork for a bid, while New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, and Rep. Tom Suozzi are among the Empire State Democrats who have also shown an interest in the job.

Still, the attorney general presents Hochul with a high-profile opponent who has won difficult primaries before. James, who got her start in elected office holding a Brooklyn-based seat on the New York City Council, ran citywide in 2013 to succeed de Blasio as public advocate. James found herself in a primary runoff against state Sen. Dan Squadron, but she benefited from her extensive backing from the city’s labor movement. Her extremely strong showing in the city’s predominantly Black areas, as well as strong performance in Hispanic precincts, propelled her to a 59-41 win, and she had no trouble in the general election.

Plenty of political observers spent years expecting James to run for mayor in 2021, but she unexpectedly got an earlier shot at a promotion when Attorney General Eric Schneiderman resigned in May of 2018 after multiple women accused him of sexual assault. James consolidated the support of Cuomo and other members of the state party establishment, but she still faced serious primary opposition from law professor Zephyr Teachout, who had challenged Cuomo from the left in 2014 and lost a high-profile House race two years later, and Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. James ended up beating Teachout 40-31 before easily securing victory in November.

James’ decision to challenge Hochul now also means that the Empire State is in for what will likely be a competitive Democratic primary to succeed her in one of the most influential attorneys general offices in America. We’ll have more about the potential field for this post in a future Digest.

● VA-Gov, VA-LG, VA-AG: We have quite a few polls to run down. First up are the gubernatorial numbers:

<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/oct-20-26-2021-washington-post-schar-school-virginia-poll/1ad60e58-0bc2-404d-80e6-0f8ff5fba246/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">Abt Associates</a> for the <em>Washington Post</em> and George Mason University: Terry McAuliffe (D): 49, Glenn Youngkin (R): 48 (<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/sept-7-13-washington-post-schar-school-virginia-poll/30a01c3f-103a-4cb1-9d62-049d77f5a245/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2">Sept</a>.: 50-47 McAuliffe)
<a href="https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-24-27_Virginia_Topline_October-28-Release.pdf">Beacon Research (D) and Shaw &amp; Company (R)</a> for Fox: Youngkin (R): 53, McAuliffe (D): 45 (<a href="https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2021/10/Fox_October-10-13_Virginia_Topline_October-14-Release.pdf">mid-October</a>: 51-46 McAuliffe)
<a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/glenn-youngkin-terry-mcaulifffe-poll-lead-virginia-4-points">Co/Efficient</a> (R) for Winsome Sears: Youngkin (R): 47, McAuliffe (D): 43, Princess Blanding (Liberation Party): 5 (<a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/567785-mcauliffe-leads-youngkin-by-slim-margin-in-va-gubernatorial-race">Aug</a>.: 47-45 McAuliffe)
<a href="https://echeloninsights.com/in-the-news/vagov/">Echelon Insights</a> (R): Youngkin (R): 49, McAuliffe (D): 46, Blanding (L): 2

The Fox poll not only finds a truly massive swing to Youngkin in the span of just two weeks that no other public poll has picked up on, it also gives him the largest lead we’ve seen in any poll.

Co/Efficient gives Blanding, who is an anti-police brutality activist, a hefty 5% of the vote, which is also larger than what any other pollster has shown. Many firms, however, haven’t asked about Blanding in their surveys.

Three of these surveys also took a look at the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general. For lieutenant governor, Abt gives Democrat Hala Ayala a 50-46 edge over Republican Winsome Sears. Sears’ internal from co/efficient, though, has her narrowly up 47-46, while Echelon finds the Republican similarly situated at 48-46.

For attorney general, finally, Abt has Democratic incumbent Mark Herring beating Republican Jason Miyares 50-44, while co/efficient and Echelon put Miyares’ lead at 46-45 and 48-47, respectively. The last time one party didn’t sweep all three statewide races was 2005, when Democrat Tim Kaine was elected governor as Republicans Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell were pulling off tight races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

● WI-Gov, WI-Sen: While state Rep. John Macco initially said that he and businessman Eric Hovde would be fielding a joint poll, paid by Hovde, to assess which of them should seek the Republican nomination for governor, Macco quickly backed off after Hovde’s camp disputed the existence of the alliance.

The state representative said Wednesday, “At this point, there is no poll. I was under the understanding that we were going to get one put out, but that’s not happening at this point.” He added, “I may have misunderstood that, that that (potential poll) was a joint effort.” Macco said he’d now be deciding on his own whether or not to take on Democratic Gov. Tony Evers.

Hovde, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for Senate in 2012, has yet to comment on his interest in running for governor. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, though, says that unnamed people close to Hovde think he’s mulling the idea over, as well as another upper chamber run should Republican Sen. Ron Johnson retire in 2022.

House

● FL-20: EMILY’s List on Friday endorsed Broward County Commissioner Barbara Sharief, a development that came days before the crowded special election Democratic primary. Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin, though, says that EMILY has been “heavily involved” with her bid for months, including in mid-July when it helped “overhaul her campaign team.”

● IL-16: Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger announced Friday that he would not seek a seventh term in the House, a development that came hours after Illinois’ Democratic legislature passed a new congressional map that would have placed him in the same seat as fellow GOP Rep. Darrin LaHood. That would have likely been an impossible primary for Kinzinger, who was one of just 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach Donald Trump in January. (One of his compatriots, Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, announced his own retirement from Congress in September.)

We may not have seen the last of Kinzinger, though, as he said, “This isn’t the end of my political future, but the beginning.” The outgoing congressman didn’t rule out running for the Senate or governor earlier this year, but he’d still face a difficult task winning over a Trump-worshipping electorate before he could concentrate on trying to prevail in the general election in this very blue state.

It’s almost hard to believe, given the circumstances of his departure from the House, but Kinzinger was elected as part of the 2010 tea party wave and, with the backing of his party leadership, won a primary two years later against a fellow incumbent. Kinzinger first sought elected office in 1998 when, as a college sophomore, he unseated a Democratic member of the McLean County Board (he would recount that he was inspired to run after someone initially suggested the idea as a joke). He later enlisted in the Air Force after the 9/11 attacks and went on to serve in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Kinzinger, who had left elected office in 2003, formed an exploratory committee in 2009 to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Halverson in what was then numbered the 11th District, though he couldn’t formally announce until his deployment ended in the summer. Halverson had flipped this historically Republican seat in the Chicago suburbs in a 58-34 landslide as Barack Obama was winning 53-45 here, but while she didn’t look vulnerable at first, Kinzinger released a poll showing him beating her as early as March of the next year.

Kinzinger, who made sure to cultivate tea party groups early, easily won the GOP nomination. Halverson went after the Republican for his support for free trade agreements and portrayed him as an opponent of Social Security, but Kinzinger ended up winning 57-43 in a truly ugly year for Team Blue.

The new congressman couldn’t rest for long, though: The Democratic legislature soon drew him into the same safely red North-central Illinois seat, now numbered the 16th District, as 10-term GOP Rep. Don Manzullo.

Manzullo represented more of the new district than Kinzinger and had a more conservative reputation. However, in an unusual turn of events, party leaders like Speaker John Boehner, Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, and especially Majority Leader Eric Cantor donated to or outright backed the more junior Kinzinger (the media reported during the campaign that Manzullo had said years before that Cantor, who is Jewish, could not be “saved,” a remark Manzullo’s team denied), while conservative outside groups stood by Manzullo.

The campaign turned into a generational battle between Manzullo and Kinzinger, who was all of 14 years old when his opponent was first elected to Congress, though they also spent plenty of time arguing the other was insufficiently conservative. And in a line that foreshadowed Kinzinger’s eventual falling out with the base, one tea party leader declared, “Kinzinger jumped on the tea party wave but once he got elected he didn’t do a damn thing for us.” The usually laid-back Manzullo surprised many observers by running an aggressive campaign, but Kinzinger prevailed 54-46.

Kinzinger quickly became entrenched, but his willingness to criticize left him with a difficult relationship with the administration. Kinzinger voted against impeaching Trump in 2019, but he stood out the next year as one of the few Republicans willing to call out his lies about the election. Things escalated after the Jan. 6 attack, though, and this time, the congressman supported Trump’s removal. Several Republicans announced primary challenges soon after, but his fate wasn’t truly sealed until the legislature passed its new map late Thursday.

● IL-17: VoteVets has endorsed Rockford Alderman Jonathan Logemann in the unfolding Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Cheri Bustos in the redrawn 17th District.

● OR-05, OR-06: Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader said Thursday that he had yet to decide whether he’d run for the new 5th or 6th District but would be announcing his plans in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Democratic state Rep. Andrea Salinas also said she’d make up her mind in the coming weeks whether she’d campaign for the 6th District.

● TX-08: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, whose position as leader of the state Senate makes him one of the far right’s most powerful figures in Texas, has endorsed Navy SEAL veteran Morgan Luttrell in the Republican primary to succeed retiring Rep. Kevin Brady for this safely red seat north of Houston. Luttrell ended September with $665,000 on-hand, which made him the only well-funded contender. Christian Collins, who is Brady’s former campaign manager, announced the next month, though, and he quickly secured the support of Sen. Ted Cruz.

● TX-28: Businessman Ed Cabrera recently announced that he would seek the Republican nomination to take on conservative Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. The new 28th District, according to data from Dave’s Redistricting App, backed Joe Biden 53-46, compared to 52-47 under the current map.

Cuellar, meanwhile, faces a primary match against Jessica Cisneros, a progressive who held him to a 52-48 victory in 2020. Cuellar outraised Cisneros $645,000 to $420,000 during the inaugural quarter of her new campaign, and he ended September with a huge $2.2 million to $310,000 cash-on-hand lead.

Obituaries

● Former Virginia Gov. Linwood Holton, the first Republican to hold this post since the 1880s and the father-in-law of Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, died Thursday at the age of 98. Holton was the second-oldest former governor in the nation, being three days older than Minnesota Republican Al Quie.

Holton, who was elected in 1969 to his only term, made a name for himself through his attempts to integrate public schools, including by enrolling his daughters in almost entirely Black schools, though he opposed employing busing to end segregation. Holton also was the first governor in decades to appoint African Americans to important government posts, though this did not include judgeships. Over the years he drifted away from his party and backed several Democrats, including Douglas Wilder in his successful 1989 bid to be the first Black person elected governor of any state, Kaine, and Barack Obama.

Holton, who served in the Navy during World War II, first ran for office in 1955 when the Republican, who called for the state to comply with Brown v. Board of Education, sought a state House seat in the Roanoke area. Virginia at the time was a Democratic-dominated state controlled by the infamous political Byrd machine whose leader, Sen. Harry Byrd, was one of the most prominent segregationists in the nation, and Holton lost in a close race. Holton, who waged another failed bid two years later, would concentrate on building up the state GOP, efforts that would gradually bear fruit in the following years.

Holton ran for governor in 1965 against Democratic Mills Godwin in a race he understood was about building him up for his next campaign rather than actually winning, and sure enough, Godwin prevailed 48-37. Holton ran again in 1969 to succeed the termed-out Godwin (Virginia still famously prohibits governors from running for re-election), a campaign that took place a year after the Holton-backed Richard Nixon carried the state, and this time, he had a serious shot.

Meanwhile, as the Richmond Times-Dispatch's Jeff Schapiro explains, Democrats went through an ugly primary where William Battle, the son of a Byrd machine governor from the early 1950s, narrowly beat state Rep. Henry Howell, who had the backing of African American voters and labor groups. The AFL-CIO and the prominent Black group Crusade for Voters saw their chance to defeat what was left of the Byrd network and backed Holton. Howell, meanwhile, only gave Battle a perfunctory endorsement, saying his supporters were “free spirits.”

Holton ended up winning 53-45, though his ticket mates for lieutenant governor and attorney general weren’t so successful. The latter contender, Richard Obenshain, would become a prominent intra-party rival for the new governor, and it would be Obenshain’s vision of a conservative GOP that would prevail over Holton’s more moderate platform.

Holton in 1973 backed the successful campaign of Godwin, the old Democratic rival who defected to the Republicans before launching his comeback, and he went on to hold posts in the Nixon administration. Holton ran for office one more time in 1978 when he sought the GOP nomination for the Senate, but he acknowledged he was now an “elder statesman” after losing the party convention to Obenshain. Obenshain would die in a plane crash during that campaign and be replaced as the party’s nominee by John Warner, a Holton friend and fellow moderate who would hold the seat for 30 years.