Morning Digest: GOP takes Virginia governor's race for first statewide win in more than a decade

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CA-37 Deaths DennisMoore Elections IA-01 MattBrown MikeLee NJ-Gov PA-Sen RI-Gov SeanParnell TerryMcAuliffe TX-15 UT-Sen VA-AG VA-Gov DKEMorningDigest DanJones&Associates VA-LG DanMcKee VAStateHouse JackCiattarelli ALRedistricting GlennYoungkin PhilMurphy RitaHart ARRedistricting DERedistricting MARedistricting NellieGorbea SethMagaziner SydneyKamlager BeckyEdwards LuisDanielMunoz ChristinaBohannan RobertoHaddad

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● New Jersey & Virginia Recap: Republicans swept Virginia’s statewide races on Tuesday, while the contest for governor New Jersey, unexpectedly, remained uncalled the following morning. It also remains to be seen whether the GOP will have a narrow majority in the Virginia House of Delegates, or if there are enough uncounted votes to force a 50-50 tie that would require a power-sharing agreement.

With 2.36 million votes counted in New Jersey, Republican Jack Ciattarelli held a 49.65-49.6 edge over Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy―a margin of 1,193 votes. NJ.com writes that “thousands of votes — especially from Democratic-leaning areas — have yet to be counted,” and that “it remains unclear how many vote-by-mail or provisional ballots still must be tallied.” Neither Murphy, who went into Election Day as the heavy favorite, or Ciattarelli have declared victory or conceded.

Over in Virginia, private equity executive Glenn Youngkin thwarted former Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s bid to return to the governor’s mansion on Tuesday in a close 51-49 race, becoming the first Republican to win statewide in the Old Dominion since 2009. Republicans also won the races for attorney general and lieutenant governor, both of which were held by Democrats, 50.5-49.5 and 50.7-49.3, respectively.  

Where things remain up in the air is the battle to control the state House, where Democrats were defending a 55-45 majority. Republicans led in 51 of the 100 seats on Wednesday morning, which would be enough to put them back in the speaker’s chair, but the AP had yet to call 10 races: four where Democratic candidates led (HDs 10, 21, 85, and 93), and six where Republicans were ahead  (HDs 27, 28, 63, 66, 83, and 91).

The tightest two contests were HD-85, where Democratic incumbent Alex Askew held a 50.15-49.95 edge over Republican Karen Greenhalgh (a margin of 94 votes), and HD-91, where Republican A.C. Cordoza was edging out Democratic Del. Martha Mugler 50-49 (272 votes.) 

Youngkin, a first-time candidate estimated to be worth $440 million, put at least $20 million of his own money into his own campaign, though both sides were well-financed. In a barrage of ads, McAuliffe sought to tie Youngkin to Donald Trump and attacked him for his opposition to abortion rights and vaccine mandates. Youngkin, by contrast, carefully stoked the moral panic over critical race theory by inflaming white fears about what kids are being taught in school while simultaneously presenting himself as a economy-focused moderate to suburban voters.

The results further down the ballot closely mirrored those at the top of the ticket: Former Del. Winsome Sears beat Del. Hala Ayala to become Virginia’s next lieutenant governor (and the first woman of color to hold the post), while Del. Jason Miyares ousted Attorney General Mark Herring, who was seeking his third term in office—both in tight races.

Campaign Action

The only solace for Democrats is that the state Senate was not up for election, meaning they’ll retain a check on Republicans, though they hold the chamber by a slim 21-19 margin. We’ll bring you a full recap of all of Tuesday’s action in the next Digest.

Redistricting

● AL Redistricting: Alabama’s Republican-run state House passed the GOP’s new congressional redistricting plan on Monday, with all Democrats and a few Republicans voting against, as well as a redrawn map for the chamber’s own districts. The state Senate, which Republicans also control, likewise passed a new map for itself and will now take up the congressional proposal.

● AR Redistricting: A group called Arkansans for a Unified Natural State says it plans to gather signatures for a veto referendum to overturn the state’s new Republican-drawn congressional map, an undertaking that would also have the effect of suspending the map if the referendum qualifies for next year’s ballot. Organizers would need to collect 53,491 signatures from registered voters in at least 15 counties by Jan. 13. The group previously announced plans to qualify veto referendums for three other laws the legislature passed earlier this year but abandoned those efforts after failing to obtain enough signatures.

● DE Redistricting: Both chambers in Delaware’s Democratic-run state legislature have passed new legislative maps, sending them to Democratic Gov. John Carney.

● MA Redistricting: Lawmakers in Massachusetts’ Democratic-run legislature have released a draft congressional map that doesn’t deviate much from the current lines. The state currently sends nine Democrats and zero Republicans to Congress, and that would be unlikely to change under this new proposal.

Senate

● PA-Sen: In a custody hearing Monday, Laurie Snell testified under oath that her estranged husband, Republican Senate candidate Sean Parnell, had choked her and hit their children. Parnell responded in a statement, “Let me emphatically state: I have never raised a hand in anger towards my wife or any of our three children.” He also called the allegations “complete fabrications; not distortions or misrepresentations — just flat-out lies.”

The Philadelphia Inquirer first reported in September that Snell had received two temporary protection-from-abuse orders against Parnell in 2017 and 2018, both of which were later expunged, but it was unclear on what grounds she’d sought those orders. This week, though, Snell said that Parnell had abused her since before they were married in 2010. The paper writes that Snell “testified that after a Thanksgiving trip in 2008, [Parnell] briefly forced her out of their vehicle alongside a highway after raging at her, telling her to ‘go get an abortion.'”

Snell said in court that Parnell’s behavior grew worse in 2018, which she described as the year he “started hitting the kids.” In one incident, she charged, Parnell hit one of the couple’s children so hard that it left welts on the child’s back. Snell also accused Parnell of attacking her, alleging that he once “tried to choke me out on a couch and I literally had to bite him” to escape.

● UT-Sen: Dan Jones & Associates, polling on behalf of the Deseret News and University of Utah, shows Sen. Mike Lee taking 53% in next year’s Republican primary, with former state Rep. Becky Edwards a distant second with 7%.

Governors

● RI-Gov: Campaign finance reports are out for the third quarter of 2021, and we’ve collected the numbers for the Democratic contenders below:

Former Secretary of State Matt Brown: $77,000 raised, $60,000 cash-on-hand
Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea: $153,000 raised, $749,000 cash-on-hand
State Treasurer Seth Magaziner: $253,000 raised, $1.58 million cash-on-hand
Gov. Dan McKee: $154,000 raised, $800,001 cash-on-hand
Physician Luis Daniel Muñoz: $5,000 raised, $6,000 cash-on-hand

Another Democrat, former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, entered the race in October after the start of the new quarter.

House

● CA-37: State Sen. Sydney Kamlager told the Los Angeles Times she was interested in running to succeed Rep. Karen Bass, a fellow Democrat who is leaving Congress to campaign for mayor of Los Angeles, but it remains to be seen if she’d have an open seat to run for. Last week, the state’s independent redistricting commission released a draft set of maps that would essentially eliminate Bass’ district by giving Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters much of her constituency.

● IA-01: Democrat Rita Hart said this week that she would not run for the new 1st District, which contains most of the current 2nd District she unsuccessfully sought last year. She instead endorsed state Rep. Christina Bohannan’s campaign against freshman Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, the Republican who beat Hart by six votes.

● TX-15: Attorney Roberto Haddad, who works as a lobbyist for DHR Health, has filed FEC paperwork for a potential Democratic primary campaign for this open seat.

Obituaries

● Former Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore, who was elected in 1998 and spent most of his 12 years in office as the delegation’s only Democratic member, died Tuesday at the age of 75. Moore first won office in 1976 by winning the district attorney’s post in Johnson County in the Kansas City suburbs. He sought a promotion in 1986 when he ran to unseat Republican Attorney General Bob Stephan, but he lost 53-47. The Democrat left the D.A. post two years later and became a defense attorney in some prominent local cases.

Moore reemerged on the political scene in 1998 when national Democrats successfully recruited him to challenge freshman Rep. Vince Snowbarger, a Republican who had just won the 3rd Congressional District in a close race. Democrats hadn’t represented this constituency in 37 years, but Team Blue bet that the incumbent’s anti-abortion stances and alignment with Speaker Newt Gingrich would be a liability against the moderate Moore in a suburban electorate used to electing pro-choice Republicans.

Snowbarger, meanwhile, focused on his support for low taxes and predicted that voters wouldn’t dump him at a time when “you have a strong economy.” This was one of the most closely-watched House races in the country, and Moore brought in plenty of cash against Snowbarger, who CNN wrote “hates to raise money.” The congressman’s attempts to paint the Democrat as too liberal for the district weren’t enough, and Moore ended up prevailing 52-48 at a time when Democrats were defying the usual midterm trends and netting House seats nationwide.

Moore faced a tough fight two years later to keep his seat against GOP state Rep. Phill Kline, but he won 50-47 even as George W. Bush was carrying the district 53-42. (Kline would go on to become nationally infamous during his sole term as state attorney general.) The congressman was once again a GOP target in 2002, and pilot Adam Taff defeated future Gov. Jeff Colyer in a close Republican primary to take him on. Taff, unlike Moore’s previous foes, campaigned as a moderate, but the incumbent pulled off another 50-47 victory.

That proved to be the last tight race of Moore’s career. Taff tried again in 2004 but lost an extremely tight primary to Kris Kobach, another Republican who would later become a far-right favorite years later. Moore, though, turned back Kobach 55-43 while Bush was taking the 3rd District 55-44. The incumbent won 64-34 in 2006 (Nancy Boyda’s victory in the neighboring 2nd District that year gave Moore a Democratic colleague in the Kansas delegation for the first and only time), and he earned a 56-40 victory in 2008 while Barack Obama was carrying his seat 51-48.

A few Republicans planned to take on Moore the following cycle, but he announced in 2009 that he would retire. Democrats ended up fielding his wife, nurse Stephene Moore, against state Rep. Kevin Yoder, a Republican who formed an exploratory committee hours after the incumbent retired; the GOP wave ultimately propelled Yoder to a 58-39 victory. Dennis Moore revealed two years after leaving Congress that he had Alzheimer’s, and he spent his final years advocating for others with the disease.