Build Back Better is on the House floor Thursday, and might even get a final vote before the day is done. This was supposed to be the day the House recessed for the Thanksgiving week off, with a 3 PM departure pencilled in. That deadline won’t be met, but it’s just possible that it does happen before midnight. But it looks like Pelosi’s early-week threat to cancel Thanksgiving might have done the trick to get her whole caucus primed to just get this done.

“Debate on the legislation began today at 10:15 a.m.,” Pelosi informed her members Thursday morning. “In preparation for the vote on the Floor, we have received most of the information that we need from the Senate parliamentarian on the privilege scrub. As soon as we receive the final [Congressional Budget Office] estimates for Member review, we can then proceed to votes on the revised Rule with the Manager’s Amendment and final passage.”

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Democrats will pass the bill, Rep. Dan Kildee told CNN Thursday, just as soon as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates come in. Originally, that CBO score had everyone on edge, because it was the contingency the conservatives insisted on inserting into the deal they made with the Congressional Progressive Caucus in order to get a vote on the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act passed earlier this month. Since then, the White House has been hard at work getting the message through that the CBO score would very likely underestimate how much revenue the bill is going to raise. They even got regular crank Larry Summers to write an op-ed for The Washington Post saying as much.

That’s been enough for the deficit peacock Democrats. Even if the CBO finds the bill will increase the deficit, “We anticipated that,” one of them told TNR. That’s Oregon Rep. Kurt Schrader, one of the five conservatives who signed on to the deal. He said he spoke to director of the CBO, Phillip Swagel: “Even he admitted there’s just a different interpretation [of] how the consumer is going to react,” Schrader said. “I think it’s OK. That would not dissuade me at this point.”

There’s no barrier as of yet to passing the bill in the House. As a reminder, the package includes (as of the passage of the hard infrastructure bill): four weeks paid family and medical leave for everyone; universal pre-K and child care funding; child and earned income tax credits; increased Pell Grants; expanded home- and community-based care for elderly and disabled people in the Medicaid program; boosted Affordable Care Act subsidies; $150 billion for affordable housing; and $90 billion for “equity and other investments” in maternal health, public health, pandemic preparedness, community violence intervention, and other community-based programs. It would allow Medicare to negotiate prices on a narrow set of drugs, and provide Medicare coverage for hearing aids.

The biggest single chunk of funding is $550 billion for climate initiatives, with clean energy tax credits. It contains new polluters fees; coastal resiliency programs; investments in combating drought and wildfire; and incentives for residential weatherization and green electrification. It also includes crucial projects and jobs programs like the Civilian Climate Corps (modeled after the Civilian Conservation Corps from the New Deal) and the Clean Electricity Payment Program, which provides incentives and payments to electric utilities that increase the amount of renewable energy and other forms of clean power.

Once all this passes in the House, however, it faces the Senate. The House will make adjustments based on what the Senate parliamentarian says, but there’s a lot more to deal with over there, much of it down to taxes and Sen. Joe Manchin. Finance Chair Bernie Sanders opposes the state and local tax deduction change that conservative House Democrats insisted on, arguing that it gives too much to the highest earners. Sanders also wants to get vision and dental care into Medicare.

And there’s Manchin. He’s fighting American workers and betraying Democratic colleagues by opposing a tax credit boost for union-made electric vehicles. Manchin has called this tax credit “wrong” and “not American.” Manchin, by the way, drives a Maserati, manufactured in Italy and costing enough to pay for year’s worth of groceries for about a dozen West Virginia families.

Speaking of families, Manchin is also flat-out opposed to paid leave being included in the bill. His veto will likely stick, so Senate Democrats and the White House are trying to come up with an alternative plan that includes working with Republicans, because Manchin has also vetoed ending the filibuster so Democrats can pass it on their own.

There’s hope that the bill passing the House will create enough momentum to sweep it through the Senate and back to the House for final passage before Christmas, as Schumer has promised. At this point, Manchin pretty much stands alone as a barrier to passage; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is seemingly pacified. Whether Manchin will further isolate himself by exercising his veto is not at all clear.