Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn announced Thursday evening that he would run for North Carolina’s new 13th District, which includes part of the Charlotte area and counties to the west, instead of the 14th District, which occupies the state’s western reaches and is home both to the far-right congressman and the vast majority of his current constituents. Around that same time, the News & Observer reported that state House Speaker Tim Moore would campaign to keep his current post rather than launch his own anticipated run for the 13th District, news he quickly confirmed.

Until just one day before, there didn’t seem to be much of a question that Cawthorn, who represents the current 11th District, would run for the new 14th. According to calculations from Daily Kos Elections, 93% of the population in the 14th is already represented by Cawthorn, and at 53-45 Trump, it’s likely to easily remain in GOP hands outside of an unusually strong Democratic year. Political observers, meanwhile, have long bet that Moore would run in the 13th District, a 60-39 Trump constituency that Cawthorn represents just 12% of.

All of that conventional wisdom, though, went out the window after a Cawthorn call this week with local party officials, where he told them he was thinking about making his switch. Multiple GOP leaders including Michele Woodhouse, who chairs the party in the current 11th District, said Wednesday evening they were surprised, with her declaring that “there hadn’t really been any kind of Republican buzz or gossip about it at all.”

If Woodhouse was surprised by the development, however, she began thinking ahead even before Cawthorn made his plans clear. On Thursday afternoon, when WLOS reporter Caitlyn Penter asked her if she was considering running for an open 14th District, she notably avoided answering the question even after Penter called her on her dodge.

Cawthorn put out a video hours later where he declared that “the new lines have split my constituents,” though he didn’t note which side of the split most of them fell under.  “I have every confidence in the world that, regardless where I run, the 14th Congressional District will send a patriotic fighter to [Washington,] D.C,” he continued, “But knowing the political realities of the 13th District, I’m afraid that another establishment, go-along-to-get-along Republican will prevail there. I will not let that happen.” Cawthorn did not mention Moore or anyone else by name, but his declaration seems to have had its intended effect.

It’s always possible that Cawthorn actually upended everyone’s plans because he simply wanted to run for a constituency that will almost certainly remain safely red no matter what, rather than risk getting washed away in a future blue wave. However, the National Journal’s Matt Holt may have had it right when he tweeted Thursday morning, “Cawthorn has a safe seat but wants to run in a competitive primary because it seems to him that politics is a bloodsport, not about public service.”

Cawthorn may indeed relish the opportunity to establish his dominance in state GOP politics now that he’s thwarted Moore’s expected campaign. The N&O’s Brian Murphy, who described the proposed district switch as “a huge power play by Cawthorn,” noted that he could also use the opportunity to “try to be a kingmaker in his old district, too.”

Murphy speculated that the congressman might also want to run in a different part of the state in order to build up his name recognition for a future campaign, though he pointed out that Cawthorn is already pretty well-known. Quite so: Cawthorn made national headlines last year when he decisively won the GOP nomination in the old 11th District by defeating a Trump-backed candidate, and he’s only gained more attention since then for his eagerness to court violent groups in spreading the Big Lie.