The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● WA-SoS: Washington Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who is the Evergreen State’s only Republican statewide elected official, announced Tuesday that she would resign on Nov. 19 to join the Biden administration to oversee election security. (Wyman, depending on whether or not one includes Alaska as part of the West Coast, could also be called the region’s only statewide Republican.)

Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee will be charged with appointing her successor, who will be up in November of 2022 for the final two years of Wyman’s term. Inslee has the chance to put a Democrat in the secretary of state’s office for the first time since the 1964 elections, but there’s no guarantee he’ll take advantage of the opportunity. Indeed, when the Associated Press’ Rachel La Corte asked the governor’s office if he might pick a Republican to serve as a placeholder until next year’s election, they responded, “We are not ruling anything out. It is possible.”

Wyman herself was elected to this post in a very tight 2012 contest to succeed three-term incumbent Sam Reed, and she decisively won re-election four years later. Wyman attracted national prominence during the Trump era by repeatedly touting mail-in voting as her party’s leader tried to undermine it and calling out his lies both before and after the 2020 election.

Campaign Action

Wyman that year faced a serious challenge from Democratic state Rep. Gael Tarleton, who argued that Wyman hadn’t done enough to oppose voter suppression; Tarleton also hammered the incumbent for testifying against H.R. 1, the landmark measure House Democrats passed in 2019 to expand voting rights and end gerrymandering. Wyman, though, prevailed 54-46 even as Biden was carrying the state 58-39.

P.S. If you’re wondering how Republicans managed to flip this office in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson was winning Washington 62-37 as part of his historic nationwide landslide, it turns out there’s a story behind it. Joel Connelly explained back in 2019 in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer that Republican Lud Kramer prevailed that year “by tossing out cardboard cutouts to represent the 11 family members that Democratic incumbent Vic Meyers put on the payroll.”

That wasn’t the only scandal that afflicted Meyers, who got into politics after making a name for himself during the Great Depression as a popular bandleader. As Michael Hood wrote in a 2007 piece, the secretary of state received plenty of negative attention the previous year after 83,000 petitions for an anti-gambling initiative were stolen from his office in what was called “The Great Petition Robbery.” The perpetrators, who were identified in the media as “Shorty,” and “Fiddleface,” were never caught.

Meyers went on to certify the referendum anyway after determining it would have qualified. The measure went down in defeat in 1964 at the same time that Kramer was beating Washington’s last Democratic secretary of state 54-46.

Redistricting

● CA Redistricting: Mappers, start your engines! California’s independent redistricting commission has released its first draft of maps for Congress and the state legislature, which will doubtless keep home cartographers occupied for a while. So far, only PDF images of the maps and an interactive district viewer have been shared, though data files that will allow for a more detailed analysis should appear on the commission’s site soon. The commission is scheduled to release formal draft maps by Nov. 15 and has until Dec. 27 to approve final maps.

● OH Redistricting: Republican state House Speaker Bob Cupp, who is a member of Ohio’s GOP-dominated redistricting commission, confirmed that the commission would not meet its Oct. 31 deadline to draw a new congressional map, punting the task back to the legislature. Lawmakers had already missed a Sept. 30 deadline to come up with their own map, a failure that kicked the task to the commission, which has now passed the redistricting hot potato right back where it came from.

Why all the hijinks? Had legislators drawn a map in time, they’d have needed to muster the support of half of the members of each party in order for it to pass. The seven-member commission, which has five Republicans and two Democrats, likewise would have needed bipartisan agreement to adopt a map. But now that the task has reverted to lawmakers once more, they can then pass a map that’s good for a full 10 years with the backing of just one-third of Democrats—or they can approve one without any Democratic support that will last for four years.

There’s a good chance that latter option is exactly where we’re headed, because that would allow Republicans to fine-tune their gerrymanders after just two elections rather than hoping they hold up for five. In fact, that’s precisely what transpired last month during the legislative redistricting process, which is handled exclusively by the commission but operates with similar rules: Republicans needed Democratic buy-in to pass a 10-year map but instead chose to ram through a four-year map without any bipartisan support.

Even if Republicans don’t go it alone on the congressional map, the mere fact that they can gives them leverage over Democrats to pressure them into accepting a slightly more modest but still durable 10-year gerrymander. Skeptical observers warned at the time that the constitutional amendments passed during the last decade that created the redistricting commission were only a sham reform. The GOP’s actions over the last few months have proved those warnings prescient.

Senate

● IA-Sen: A survey from the GOP pollster Cygnal for Iowans for Tax Relief, a conservative group, finds Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley leading his most prominent Democratic opponent, former Rep. Abby Finkenauer, by a 55-39 margin. That’s similar to a nonpartisan survey released by Selzer & Co. last month that had Grassley ahead 55-37.

● NC-Sen: We’ve got another strange internal poll of a GOP primary that shows the candidate releasing it leading … but doing worse than before. This time the survey is from Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of former Gov. Pat McCrory, which shows McCrory beating Rep. Ted Budd 40-25 while former Rep. Mark Walker is back at 8%. But unmentioned in the memo, of course, is the fact that in an April POS poll, McCrory had a much wider 48-13 lead on Walker, with Budd taking just 9%.

We recently saw something similar from Ohio Senate candidate Josh Mandel, but the explanation is pretty clear: Without trendlines, which are easily elided, a lead like this looks good to donors. There may be something else at play here, too, since POS’ memo includes a description of negative “messages to use against Budd moving forward”—a likely signal to super PACs regarding the kind of attack ads McCrory’s team would like to see them deploy.

Governors

● CT-Gov: A survey from Public Policy Polling for Democrats for Education Reform, a pro-charter schools group, finds Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont leading former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides 52-32 and businessman Bob Stefanowski 52-36. This is the first poll of Connecticut’s race for governor next year. Both Klarides and Stefanowski, who was the GOP’s 2018 nominee, have talked about running but neither has committed to a campaign yet.

● MI-Gov: Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer continues to lead the pack in fundraising, reporting a $3.1 million haul from July 21 through Oct. 20 and $12.6 million in the bank. Her best-funded Republican opponent, former Detroit police Chief James Craig, brought in $1.4 million during that timeframe and had $1 million left over. Chiropractor Garrett Soldano, meanwhile, raised $496,000 and had $473,000 to spend, while conservative radio host Tudor Dixon took in $215,000 and had $165,000 on hand.

Whitmer could, however, have to disgorge $3 million from her war chest thanks to a Republican lawsuit challenging her practice of accepting contributions greater than the normal state limits because she faces dozens of recall efforts. The suit argues that Whitmer cannot keep those donations if a recall does not actually go forward, and none appear likely to. However, even if Republicans are successful, Whitmer would be able to donate any excess funds to the state Democratic Party, which could use them to support her re-election bid.

● NH-Gov: Former state Sen. Dan Feltes, who was the Democrats’ nominee for governor last year and hadn’t ruled out a repeat bid, has taken himself out of contention by moving to Iowa.

● NJ-Gov: While the Republican Governors Association had previously only made a limited foray into New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, the group has now spent $2.2 million on behalf of Republican Jack Ciattarelli. That’s similar, though, to the sum the RGA deployed in a losing effort four years ago, and overall, outside spending has heavily favored Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy: Altogether, Murphy allies have spent $18.3 million to date, compared to just $2.7 million on the GOP side.

● VA-Gov: Suffolk University’s first—and presumably last—poll out of Virginia has Democrat Terry McAuliffe edging out Republican Glenn Youngkin 46-45, while Democrat Hala Ayala leads Republican Winsome Sears 46-44 in the race for lieutenant governor and Democrat Mark Herring is ahead of Republican Jason Miyares 48-45 in his bid for a second term as state attorney general.

Virginia Commonwealth University also has one more poll, with T-Mac up 41-38, Ayala ahead 36-35, and Herring on top 39-35. However, as it’s done all year, VCU keeps offering respondents the option to pick “neither of these” candidates, which has lead to an artificially large number of seemingly undecided voters.

New fundraising reports also show that McAuliffe and Youngkin raised similar sums during the first three weeks of October, $12.9 million for the former and $11.9 million for the latter. However, Youngkin supplemented his haul with another $3.5 million in self-funding. McAuliffe, though, had husbanded his resources, allowing him to out-spend his rival $18.8 million to $11 million during this time period, but Youngkin had a $7.9 million to $1.9 million cash edge for the final stretch.

House

● MD-04: On Tuesday, former Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey and Del. Jazz Lewis became the first two prominent Democrats to announce bids to succeed Rep. Anthony Brown, who is giving up this safely blue seat to run for state attorney general.

Ivey was elected in 2002 to serve as the top prosecutor in Prince George’s County, a suburban D.C. community that makes up the vast majority of the current version of the 4th District, and he retired in 2010. He was far from done with politics, though, as he waged an aborted 2012 Democratic primary bid against Rep. Donna Edwards.

Edwards left the 4th District behind four years later to unsuccessfully run for the Senate, and Ivey outraised the rest of the field in the contest to succeed her. Brown, however, still retained plenty of name recognition and connections from his losing 2014 run for governor, and he beat Ivey 42-34.

The Washington Post writes that in recent years, the former state’s attorney chaired “the committee examining the Prince George’s police department’s internal policies.” Ivey also retains some notable political ties: His wife, Jolene Ivey, is a member of the County Council, while their son, Julian Ivey, serves in the state House of Delegates.

Lewis, meanwhile, is a former senior advisor to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, who represents a neighboring Maryland seat. Lewis was appointed in 2017 to a seat in the state House, and he currently chairs the chamber’s House Democratic Caucus.

There are plenty of other Democrats who could also run here, and Prince George’s County Councilmember Derrick Leon Davis told Maryland Matters this week that he was thinking about it.

● NE-01: The Lincoln Journal Star's Don Walton reports that Democratic state Sen. Patty Pansing Brooks “will announce soon” that she’s running against Republican Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, who was indicted last week for lying to federal investigators. The new 1st District, according to Dave’s Redistricting App, backed Donald Trump 54-43, while the current seat supported him by a 56-41 spread.

● NY-02: 2020 Democratic nominee Jackie Gordon announced Tuesday that she would seek a rematch against freshman Republican Rep. Andrew Garbarino in a Southern Long Island seat that has yet to be redrawn. Garbarino ended September with $882,000 in the bank to defend himself.

Gordon, who is an Army veteran and former member of the Babylon Town Council, looked like a big longshot in 2019 when she entered the race to take on Republican incumbent Peter King, but national Democrats took a new interest in her after the longtime congressman decided to retire. Gordon ultimately outraised Garbarino, who was an assemblyman at the time, by a lopsided $4.4 million to $1.7 million margin, while outside groups on both sides spent heavily here.

Trump in 2016 carried the 2nd District 53-44, but Democrats hoped that his toxicity in the suburbs would put Gordon over the top in an area long accustomed to electing Republicans down the ballot. That’s not how things turned out, though, as Garbarino fended off Gordon 53-46 as Trump was prevailing 51-47 here.

● OR-05: Attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who’s been considering a primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader, indicated she’s ready to kick off a bid with a tweet late on Monday evening that read, “Hey, @RepSchrader, I’m here for #CD5. Are you? Let’s do this.” However, there’s been no accompanying press coverage, and McLeod-Skinner’s own website doesn’t indicate that she’s running.

● TX-34, TX-15: Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who currently represents Texas’ 15th Congressional District, announced on Tuesday that he’d seek re-election in the new 34th District, likely smoothing his path to a fourth term while making it more difficult for his party to retain his old seat. That’s because Republican state lawmakers deliberately made the 15th several points redder in their new congressional map: While the old version voted for Joe Biden 50-49, under the new lines, it would have gone for Donald Trump 51-48, a difference in margin of almost 5 points when accounting for rounding.

Gonzalez had said he might switch districts when an earlier draft of the GOP’s map was making its way through the legislature, but Republicans added a further inducement when they tweaked their plan to ensure that the congressman’s Brownsville home would shift from the 15th to the 34th. The latter district is now solidly blue, at 57-42 Biden—the key reason why Gonzalez prefers it.

The swap is only possible, though, because the current representative in the neighboring 34th District, Democrat Filemon Vela, unexpectedly announced in March that he would retire from Congress. Vela gave his blessing to Gonzalez’s decision on Tuesday, saying in a statement, “There’s no one I trust more to stand up for the Rio Grande Valley and our values in Congress than Vicente.”

But while Gonzalez might have the outgoing congressman’s support, most of the constituents he’s seeking to represent will be new to him. According to a new Daily Kos Elections analysis, only 25% of those living in the new 34th hail from the old 15th; had Gonzalez remained in his old district, 69% of residents would have remained familiar to him, and his incumbency would have given Democrats an advantage that now they’ll have to do without.

As a result, Gonzalez may face a contested primary in his new district. Civil rights attorney Rochelle Garza has been running in the 34th since July, though in a new statement, she said, “I am considering my next steps” in light of Gonzalez’ move. Through the end of September, she’d raised $196,000 and had $144,000 in the bank, while Gonzalez had amassed a considerable $2.1 million war chest. Other ambitious Democrats in the area might also be drawn to the race, though Texas laws would require a runoff if no candidate wins a majority in next year’s primary.

As for the 15th, Gonzalez had been cruising toward a likely rematch with insurance agent Monica De La Cruz, who as the GOP’s nominee last year held the incumbent to a shockingly close 51-48 win despite running a badly underfunded campaign that got little outside attention. This time around has been different: De La Cruz has already earned endorsements from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Sen. Ted Cruz, and she’s raised $928,000 to date, more than twice as much as she brought in all of last cycle. She’s spent a lot already, though, banking $422,000—less than half her total haul.

In recent days, De La Cruz has been joined by businessman Mauro Garza, who’s run a couple of very unsuccessful House campaigns over the last few years but has done a little self-funding and has $365,000 on hand. There’s also executive coach Ryan Krause, who lost last year’s primary runoff to De La Cruz 76-24 and raised bupkes. With Gonzalez’ decision so fresh, we haven’t yet heard from any Democrats who might seek to succeed him in the 15th, though despite South Texas’s shift to the right last year, there are still many Democrats who hold office in a region that has long leaned toward the party.

● TX-30: Attorney Abel Mulugheta, a former chief of staff to state Rep. Rafael Anchía, announced on Tuesday that he’s planning to run for Texas’ safely blue 30th Congressional District, and it’s not clear whether he’s waiting to see if veteran Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson retires after 15 terms. The 85-year-old Johnson, who is the second-oldest member of the House, said two years ago that her 2020 campaign would be her last, but she and her staff have rebuffed all efforts to confirm her plans since her win in November. Texas’ filing deadline is in mid-December.

Mayors

● Atlanta, GA Mayor: City Councilman Andre Dickens has a new commercial up starring his most prominent supporter, former Mayor Shirley Franklin. Franklin tells the audience that Dickens “has the support of unions and community leaders, because he has the best plan to fight crime and to create good jobs.”

● Seattle, WA Mayor: City Council President Lorena González said Monday that she was taking down a TV commercial that accused Bruce Harrell, her predecessor and opponent in next week’s election, of having “repeatedly sided with abusers.” Harrell, who is Black, argued the spot deployed racist stereotypes about him and disputed the facts behind the commercial.