With the draconian new Texas abortion law now in effect, essentially enabling vigilante persecution of innocent citizens, and the GOP’s unsuccessful recall attempt against California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Republicans across the country continue their crusade to chip away at fundamental rights and hold onto power by any means possible. As the GOP flexes its state-level power, Democrats will need a strong plan to ensure favorable electoral outcomes in 2022.

This week’s guest on The Brief was Nick Rathod, founder and former executive director of the State Innovation Exchange, which helps advance progressive agendas in state legislatures around the country. He joined hosts Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld to talk about the California recall election and other parts of the political landscape across the country.

With new abortion restrictions being considered by GOP-controlled state legislatures across the country and other state Republican parties eying recall efforts to distract and delay, how can Democrats fight back? It remains to be seen whether Newsom’s performance will serve as a deterrent to future efforts to stymie Democratic leadership—or will we see more of this in the future? “The fact is, in the end, Democratic performance was fantastic—it was exactly where it needed to be,” Moulitsas said. “So is this a bellwether for the epic incoming 2022 cycle, or is California in its own blue bubble with is own dynamics, divorced from the rest of purple America?”

Eleveld wasn’t sure what the new Texas anti-abortion law has accomplished for the Republican base. “The more voters find out about it, the less popular it is … it’s going to serve as a drag on these Republicans … anyone in a swing state trying to defend this law is in a lot of trouble.”

Moulitsas elaborated,

At this point, Rathod joined the show, and Moulitsas opened up a conversation about about the results of the failed recall attempt against Newsom and what they tell us about potential future attempts to undermine Democratic leadership.

Eleveld wondered, “[Are the results of the recall] really much of an indicator?” Eleveld then asked Rathod if there were other examples of how this was not a California-specific event and could translate elsewhere.

Rathod thinks that we’ve come full circle in a sense, with a newly powerful backlash from some independents and conservatives against anti-vaxxers. As more and more people chafe at the idea of others shirking their social responsibility to one another in terms of public health, he argued, these individuals are starting to become a group ripe for Democrats to try to win over in 2022:

They’re the ones that are like, ‘I believe in some of Trump’s policies, I believe in small government, [low] taxes, that sort of thing, you know, traditional conservative values. But this thing with COVID? We’re done with it, we got vaccinated. Who are these people that are like, my kids are in school now and saying that they can’t be vaccinated, no masks, that sort of thing?’ I think this is ripe for Democrats to play on and build on, especially going into the midterm elections. It will drive the election. And you’re seeing some of that rhetoric and lessons learned [being applied] in Virginia in the governors race coming up here.

The results of next year’s election are going to demonstrate further polarization, Eleveld surmised, even within parties: “One way or another, the party that comes out of next year is going to be more radicalized … they will have primaried sort of ‘normal’ people out. It’s going to be a crazy caucus in both chambers.”

Rathod referred to the whole situation as a circus, but believes that Democrats can ultimately get a handle on things:

Certain counties are also high stakes for Democrats in 2022, as the margin in the House shrank to just five seats last year. Several in particular will be very competitive races, and Eleveld specifically asked about Orange County and what happened there during the recall. Republicans have made inroads with Asian voters in the area, and Moulitsas offered a concerning highlight: Vietnamese Americans swung right heavily—30 points—responding to attacks on Newsom that tied him to socialism. “[They’re] one of the few Asian groups, if not the only Asian group, that actually supported Donald Trump. And it all swung heavily back. So there’s that hope that the suburbs continue to trend in our direction,” he said.

Rathod isn’t surprised, as Republicans have been ruthlessly methodical about consolidating state power and building infrastructure and investment to support their policy goals. “That’s why Republicans move legislation forward [in the states], and then they come to DC and do nothing,” he added. Rathod believes there’s hope for positive effects to trickle down from the presidential level, as Biden’s performance is being closely watched and tied to local Democrats running for office—but Democrats have to take advantage of their window of power right now and act. As he noted,

Moulitsas noted that Democrats are not good at selling their accomplishments, and many voters are not even aware of Dems’ role in, say, providing the most recent round of COVID relief that came out towards the beginning of this year. “At this point, I’m not sure if we get an infrastructure plan passed, that we’re going to get credit,” he said. “How important are these bills compared to running against Trump and Trump candidates, and oh my god, they’re going to take away vaccine mandates and mask mandates? How much of it is a hope vs. fear … what is the magic formula to get our people to turn out?”

Rathod thinks it’s a combination of both: “Coupled with these extreme candidates that I think will motivate a certain set of people, I think that if you want to start peeling off a lot of Republicans and independents, … I still think that that’s something we need to be able to go back to districts and talk about.”

Moulitsas asked, “How do we get people to realize that these laws happen because we neglect state-level government?”

Republicans have understood the power of states for years, Rathod explained, and Democrats can fight back with this knowledge in mind:

Because Republicans have been able to frame in laws, issues, and policies their way, they have powerful control over shaping narratives—and without significant investment in state infrastructure, Democrats will always be playing a game of catchup. “It is just a combination of a lot of things that we just miss when you miss investment at the local level … we need to build similar infrastructure in the states,” Rathod added.

You can watch this week’s episode here:

YouTube Video

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