The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● Minneapolis, MN Ballot: On Tuesday, Minnesota Judge Jamie Anderson ruled that votes would not be counted in this November’s referendum to replace the Minneapolis Police Department with a new public safety agency. Supporters of the ballot measure quickly announced that they would appeal to the state Supreme Court, which granted an accelerated appeal the following day.

Anderson last week struck down the planned ballot language for the referendum, writing that it was “vague, ambiguous and incapable of implementation, and is insufficient to identify the amendment clearly.” The Minneapolis City Council quickly passed updated wording just ahead of the deadline for ballots to be printed, but the judge was still not satisfied. On Tuesday, she ruled that the new language still “does not ensure that voters are able to understand the essential purpose of the proposed amendment.”

The proposed amendment would create a “Department of Public Safety’’ to succeed the police department and shift more control of the new department from the mayor to the city council. Opponents have argued that the measure, in its current form, could result in the police department being abolished without a clear way to replace it, while an attorney for the pro-referendum campaign said in response, “The police department will exist until the City Council decides otherwise.”

Campaign Action

The referendum campaign has divided prominent Minnesota Democrats. Gov. Tim Walz, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and Mayor Jacob Frey have said that, while police reform is needed, abolishing the police department would be counterproductive. Rep. Ilhan Omar and state Attorney General Keith Ellison, though, have both argued that this plan is necessary in the wake of George Floyd’s murder and have pushed back on the idea that the measure would defund the police.

Redistricting

● NY Redistricting: New York’s bipartisan redistricting commission released draft redistricting plans for both Congress and the state legislature on Wednesday, making it the biggest state so far to do so. Because the panel could not agree on a single set of proposals, the Democratic commissioners released their own maps, as did the Republicans. Data files for the maps themselves are available on the commission’s site, while more user-friendly versions (including links to interactive maps on Dave’s Redistricting App) should appear on Redistrict 2020 soon.

There’s still a long way to go from introduction to enactment, so as we’ve explained in the past, we won’t spend time analyzing maps like these unless particular circumstances warrant it (for instance, see our IN-05 item below). The path to passage is also particularly complex in New York, since Democrats can potentially override the commission thanks to their supermajorities in the legislature.

Governors

● AL-Gov: Businessman Tim James, who came in a very close third during the 2010 Republican primary, confirmed Wednesday that he was thinking about waging an intra-party campaign against Gov. Kay Ivey and would decide by the end of the year. James is the son of former Gov. Fob James, who was elected governor as a Democrat in 1978 and as a Republican in 1994 but badly lost re-election four years later.

Ivey infuriated the GOP’s anti-vaxx base in July when she said it was “time to start blaming the unvaccinated folks” for the resurgent pandemic, but the younger James himself didn’t say this week why he believed the governor should be fired. Instead, he declared war on the “beast with three heads,” which he said were critical race theory, transgender rights, and yoga in public schools. Ivey’s team responded to James’ speech by saying, “We appreciate his unwavering commitment to the important fight on yoga. As for Gov. Ivey, she doesn’t do any yoga.”

Republicans across the nation routinely demonize transgender people and the idea of critical race theory, but James’ attack on yoga is much more unusual. The only notable Republican we’d heard torch the exercise before now was E.W. Jackson, the 2013 nominee for lieutenant governor of Virginia who once suggested it leads to Satan, but James isn’t the only Alabama conservative up in arms about it.

In May, Ivey signed a bill that removed a nearly three-decade ban on yoga in public schools, though it still required English names for any positions. Additionally, the law’s language said, “Chanting, mantras, mudras, use of mandalas, induction of hypnotic states, guided imagery, and namaste greetings shall be expressly prohibited.”

The Montgomery Advertiser's Brian Lyman tweeted in the spring that the bill “close[d] the book on one of the stupidest moral panics in Alabama history, which is really saying a lot,” but as James’ speech demonstrates, not everyone is done panicking. The Eagle Forum of Alabama alleged that yoga wasn’t an exercise but was instead done as “an offering of worship” to Hindu deities. The Universal Society of Hinduism pushed back, saying that many yoga instructors aren’t Hindus and that “traditionally Hinduism was not into proselytizing.”

James, for his part, badly lost the 2002 primary for governor, but his second bid for the GOP nod eight years later went far better. The candidate generated national attention when he said in an ad, “This is Alabama. We speak English. If you want to live here, learn it.” James ended up finishing 166 votes behind state Rep. Robert Bentley for the important second-place spot in the runoff, and that tiny loss proved to have enormous consequences. Bentley went on to win the nomination and the general election, and the sex scandal that led to his 2017 resignation elevated Ivey to the governor’s office.

Ivey already faces a potential primary challenge from state Auditor Jim Ziegler, who formed an exploratory committee in June. Former Ambassador to Slovenia Lynda Blanchard also hasn’t ruled out switching from the Senate race to the gubernatorial contest. Alabama requires primary candidates to win a majority of the vote in order to avoid a runoff.

● CA-Gov: When asked on Election Day—just ahead of the recall’s crushing defeat—whether he might once again run against Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom next year, conservative radio host Larry Elder said, “I have now become a political force here in California in general and particularly within the Republican party. And I’m not going to leave the stage.” Last month, Elder said that “in the unlikely event” he did not win the recall, he was “very likely” to seek a rematch in 2022.

While a number of commentators have tried spinning Tuesday’s results as some sort of victory for Elder, the huge drop-off between question 1 and question 2 on the recall ballot has artificially inflated his share of the vote. As of Wednesday afternoon, 9.1 million votes had been tallied on the first question but just 5.1 million on the second, meaning 4 million voters skipped the replacement question entirely—more than 40% of the electorate.

Elder, by contrast, had earned just 2.4 million votes—far fewer than the number who, by leaving the question blank, effectively voted for “none of the above.” And while Elder’s share stood at 47% on the second question, that amounted to just 26% of all votes cast. These raw numbers will grow as the remaining votes are counted (turnout was likely around 13 million, meeting or slightly exceeding the 12.7 million votes cast in 2018), but the percentages won’t shift much. If Elder does actually run again, a second bid will meet the same fate.

Another Republican who seems similarly undeterred by reality is wealthy businessman John Cox, whose entire life revolves around unsuccessfully running for office. Cox chalked up just 4% of the vote on question 2—good for fifth place—but nevertheless declared on election night, “I will explore all of the alternatives.” The recall was Cox’s sixth failed campaign, after bids in Illinois for the House (2000), Senate (2002), Cook County recorder of deeds (2004), and president (2008). He then moved to California to get crushed by Newsom 62-38 in 2018’s gubernatorial race, the biggest blowout since the late great Earl Warren’s re-election in 1950.

● MN-Gov: MinnPost’s Peter Callaghan reports that all six announced Republican candidates for governor so far have said they plan to, in local parlance, "abide” by the endorsement process at next year’s state GOP convention. That means that none intend to run in the party’s primary unless they win the support of 60% of delegates required to earn the official Republican stamp of approval.

As Callaghan notes, only once has a candidate for governor lost the GOP endorsement but won the primary, but the circumstances were extremely unusual: Arne Carlson was the incumbent governor in 1994, but delegates viewed him as too liberal and endorsed conservative former state Rep. Allen Quist instead. Carlson nevertheless handily won the primary and general election as well, but he’s become a total apostate in Republican circles, having regularly endorsed Democrats like Barack Obama and Joe Biden over the years.

More typical was the debacle that unfolded in 2018 when former Gov. Tim Pawlenty sought to make a comeback. T-Paw, regarded as hopelessly squishy by hardliners, decided to ignore the party convention entirely and instead rely on his name recognition and fundraising connections to power him through the primary. That, however, resulted in a massive humiliation after delegates went with the name they knew, 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson, who then went on to beat Pawlenty for the nomination by a 53-44 margin despite getting massively outspent.

Callaghan’s piece also offers an in-depth look at how, exactly, a campaign to win the Minnesota GOP’s endorsement typically gets waged. In some ways it resembles a traditional campaign, but in many ways it differs markedly, since it revolves around wooing and flattering 2,200 delegates one by one.

As for Democrats, their convention process is similar, but it’s been much less influential in recent years. The current governor, Tim Walz (who is seeking re-election), won the Democratic nod in 2018 despite failing to secure the party’s endorsement, while his predecessor, Mark Dayton, managed the same feat in 2010.

● NJ-Gov: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy goes negative for the first time in the general election with an ad attacking GOP nominee Ciattarelli for attending a “Stop the Steal” rally last year, using his attendance at the event to further tie him to Donald Trump. The spot shows a clip of Ciattarelli saying he “supported Donald Trump’s policies” as a voiceover claims he would undo many of the progressive measures that Murphy has enacted while governor.

● NV-Gov: Veteran reporter and analyst Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent says that former Sen. Dean Heller, who’s reportedly been considering a political comeback for months, will enter the GOP primary for governor on Monday.

● RI-Gov: In a surprise, Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza announced Wednesday that he would not seek the Democratic nomination next year. Ocean State politicos had anticipated that Elorza, who is termed-out of his current post, would run for governor in 2022 even following Democrat Dan McKee’s ascension to the post earlier this year. Elorza, though, explained this week, “The reality is that it would be impossible to devote myself full-time to a statewide campaign while at the same time giving my full attention to the work of running the city.”

McKee currently faces intra-party challenges from Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea and Treasurer Seth Magaziner, and he may still pick up more primary foes even with Elorza out of contention. WPRI’s Ted Nesi reports that former CVS executive Helena Foulkes has been privately considering, and that she’s capable of self-funding a campaign. Foulkes, who is the niece of former Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, has not responded to any media inquiries about her plans.

● WI-Gov: Lobbyist Bill McCoshen said Wednesday that he would stay out of the Republican primary to take on Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. That was an unexpected development as the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel wrote last week that McCoshen, who served as a member of former Gov. Tommy Thompson’s cabinet in the mid-1990s, was “expected to launch his campaign soon.” McCoshen, though, said he’d “lost too much precious time” working out the sale of his lobbying company to another firm, a purchase that was announced earlier this week.

House

● FL-27: Healthcare business owner Janelle Perez announced Wednesday that she was ending her campaign for Congress and would instead run for the state Senate. Perez was the only Democrat running against Republican incumbent María Elvira Salazar, though both former Rep. Donna Shalala and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, her former colleague in the 26th District, have been considering.

● IN-05: Former Democratic state Rep. Christina Hale, who lost an expensive open-seat race for Indiana’s 5th Congressional District last year by a 50-46 margin, all but said she wouldn’t run again after Republican lawmakers unveiled a new proposed map that would make the 5th considerably redder. “I really in my bones felt I would get drawn out of the district,” Hale told Politico, describing the proposal as “a bit of a kneecapping to anyone who’s interested in running as a Democrat.”

The new map, which has yet to be voted on by the legislature, would strip out the section of Marion County, which is home to Indianapolis, from the 5th District and instead add more conservative areas further from the city. Per Daily Kos Elections’ calculations, the current district voted for Donald Trump by a narrow 50-48 margin last year, but one preliminary analysis suggests the new version would have instead gone for Trump 57-41.

As Hale put it, while this new iteration might one day be competitive if trends in the suburbs keep reaching ever outward, “We probably won’t see a real race for a number of years.”

● MO-07: Joelle Cannon, an aide to retiring Sen. Roy Blunt, says she won’t run in the GOP primary for Missouri’s open 7th District. The seat is open because Rep. Billy Long is running to succeed Blunt, who represented the 7th prior to his own elevation to the Senate in 2010.

● NM-02: Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez, who was recently mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate to take on freshmen Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell, has filed paperwork to create a campaign committee with the FEC. Vasquez does not appear to have commented publicly about his plans, though.

Legislative

● Special Elections: Here’s a recap of Tuesday’s two special elections:

IA-HD-37: Republican Mike Bousselot defeated Democrat Andrea Phillips 52-48 to hold this suburban Des Moines seat for his party. While Bousselot’s performance was slightly better than Donald Trump’s 50-48 victory here last year, Phillips was also able to improve on her 53-47 loss in 2020 to former Rep. John Landon. Control of this chamber moves to 59-40 in favor of Republicans, with one other seat vacant.

TN-HD-29: Republican Greg Vital defeated DeAngelo Jelks 80-20 to hold this strongly Republican seat for his party. This chamber is now at full strength with Team Red maintaining a 73-26 supermajority.

Mayors

● Albuquerque, NM Mayor: Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales announced Tuesday that he would rely on private funding for his campaign against Democratic incumbent Tim Keller after a judge upheld City Clerk Ethan Watson’s decision to deny the sheriff over $600,000 in public funds due to suspected fraud. Gonzales, who is still nominally a Democrat, blasted the “liberal establishment" for the setback and proclaimed he was “a strong fiscal conservative.”

Gonzales’ long and unsuccessful struggle to obtain public funds puts him at a big financial disadvantage against Keller ahead of the Nov. 2 nonpartisan primary. The mayor has at least $520,000 available, with KOAT saying this includes just the public money he obtained without much trouble, and an allied committee has $51,000 to spend. Gonzales, meanwhile, has a considerably smaller $92,000 at his disposal, while his PAC has a similar amount. That’s still far better than Republican Eddy Aragon, though, who has just $13,000.

● Atlanta, GA Mayor: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that City Councilman Andre Dickens is spending $400,000 on an opening ad buy ahead of the November nonpartisan primary. The first spot features Dickens declaring, “I ran for city council against corruption—and won. I created a high-tech job training program that’s helped hundreds.” He continues, “My safe streets plan balances safety and justice while tackling root causes of crime.”

● Boston, MA Mayor: Vote totals released Wednesday morning confirmed that the Nov. 2 general election for mayor of Boston will be a duel between City Councilor Michelle Wu, who has been campaigning as a progressive, and her more moderate colleague Annissa Essaibi George.

Wu took first place in Tuesday’s nonpartisan primary (known as the preliminary election in local parlance) with 33% of the vote, while Essaibi George took the important second-place spot with 22%. Two other candidates, City Councilor Andrea Campbell and Acting Mayor Kim Janey, were just behind with 20% and 19%, respectively.

Before the results were known on election night, Priorities for Progress, which the Boston Globe recently described as “a political action committee that promotes a middle ground for Democrats,” released a Sept. 11-12 Public Policy Polling survey that showed Wu leading each of her three prospective foes in a hypothetical general election. Wu’s 48-28 edge over Essaibi George represented her largest advantage; this is the first poll we’ve seen testing this pair against one another, though we’ll likely see more numbers in the coming weeks of this no-longer-hypothetical matchup.

The March ascension of Janey, who is Black, made her both the first woman and person of color ever to lead Boston, and whoever is elected to succeed her will also make history: Wu is the daughter of immigrants from Taiwan, while Essaibi George’s father is originally from Tunisia. Campbell is also Black, which means that the top four candidates were all women of color in a city that, until now, has only elected white men as mayor. Each of these candidates, like virtually all notable Boston politicians, also identify as Democrats.

However, there are some big differences between the two general election finalists, each of whom hold citywide seats on the Boston City Council. Wu enjoys the support of Sen. Elizabeth Warren and many of the young activists who helped propel Ed Markey to victory in his own Senate primary last year. And while Essaibi George has dismissed “labels” calling her a moderate as “lazy,” she was the only major primary contender who spoke out against the idea of reallocating funds from the police budget to other areas. She also has the backing of a super PAC funded by police unions and New Balance chairman James Davis, who has donated huge sums to support Donald Trump and other Republicans.

Wu used her election night speech to declare, “This is a choice about whether City Hall tackles our biggest challenges with bold solutions or we nibble around the edges of the status quo.” Hours later, Essaibi George used her own address to argue that Wu’s pledges to make the regional subway system free and to institute rent control were not possible for a mayor to implement, declaring, “These are issues the state must address.” She added, “I want progress to be made—real progress—not just abstract ideas that we talk about.”

P.S. Janey’s defeat makes her the first incumbent to lose a Boston mayoral race since 1949, when the legendary and controversial James Michael Curley was defeated two years after he left prison. Before Janey, though, the only acting mayor to seek a full term in the seven decades since Curley was the late Thomas Menino, whose 1991 victory a few months after taking office set him on course to be The Hub’s longest-serving mayor.

● Buffalo, NY Mayor: Mayor Byron Brown recently launched several positive TV spots for his campaign to hold this office as an independent in November, but he’s up with his first negative commercial against Democratic nominee India Walton. The ad features several police officers arguing that Walton, who defeated Brown in the June Democratic primary, would cost them and other members of the department their jobs. Brown’s team lists this spot as part of a “five-figure” buy, while Walton’s camp says they plan to debut their own TV commercials in early October.

● Seattle, WA Mayor: Elway Poll, working on behalf of Crosscut, is out with the first survey we’ve seen of the Nov. 2 general election, and it finds former City Council President Bruce Harrell leading current City Council President Lorena González 42-27. Harrell, who is close to business groups, took 34% in last month’s nonpartisan primary while González, who enjoys plenty of labor support, was just behind with 32%.

● Toledo, OH Mayor: Democratic incumbent Wade Kapszukiewicz took 54% of the vote in Tuesday’s nonpartisan primary while former Mayor Carty Finkbeiner, a former Democrat and Republican who now identifies as an “independent-Democrat,“ was far behind with 27%. The two will face off again in November, but it would be a big surprise if the general election turns out to be competitive.