Hold onto your hats. And umbrellas. In fact, if you live along the Louisiana or Mississippi coast, and it’s possible to be somewhere else, the best time for getting away is now. Because while Hurricane  Ida may currently be located just south of Cuba, it’s heading north rapidly and expected to gain strength as it comes. If current models hold, the storm will reach hurricane strength over the warm waters of the Gulf and strike the Louisiana coast on Sunday evening, making landfall on the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Worse still, the last three updates from the National Hurricane Center have all trended in the same direction: projecting the storm to be stronger just as it reaches the coast. For example, Ida was originally expected to reach hurricane strength later tonight as it crossed over western Cuba. Instead that upgrade happened in the last hour. As of the 11 AM ET update, NOAA projects that Ida will move across Cuba shortly after midnight and spend Saturday gaining strength in the Gulf. By the early hours of Sunday the storm is expected to reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher). On Sunday evening, projections have the storm hitting the Louisiana coast west of New Orleans as a strong Category 3 storm with winds of 120 mph.

Compared to Katrina, which reached an incredible maximum speed of 175 mph as a Category 5 storm, the numbers for Ida may seem relatively mild. They’re not. When Katrina actually reached New Orleans, it had weakened to a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. That means if Ida follows current projections, it could hit the coast with approximately the same force that devastated New Orleans in 2005. And, as usual with hurricanes, the winds are not the biggest threat. 

If Ida actually holds to the current course, it could do everyone an enormous favor by hitting the coast at a relatively unpopulated area near the low-lying Marsh Island, a 71,000 acre wildlife refuge that guards the entrance to much of Vermillion Bay. The biggest target along the current path would be the city of Lafayette (pop. 126,000), which lies about 30 miles inland. However, that distance is deceptive. Despite being miles from the ocean, Lafayette’s average elevation is just 49 feet above sea level, and there are a number of small towns along the city’s south side that lie along rivers or canals, making them extremely subject to flooding that could come from a surge. Also, Ida is projected to carry 100+ mph winds well inland.

At the moment, surge is a major concern. The National Hurricane Service is predicting surge up to 11 feet along a lengthy section of coastline that spans most of Louisiana and Mississippi. In several recent storms, the surge has—thankfully—turned out on the low side of predictions. But no one should assume that this is a guarantee. In addition to the surge, Ida is expected to bring heavy rains that could easily generate local flooding and exacerbate any damage generated directly from surge.

While the current track shows a hit near the dead center of Louisiana, Ida is still days out and hundreds of miles away. The current track still allows for the possibility that Ida could veer east to New Orleans, or west to Lake Charles (which was drenched by Hurricane Delta and Hurricane Laura just last year) on the west. Even those boundaries shouldn’t be taken as the limit. Everyone along the coast, which includes low-lying areas even several dozen miles inland, should relocate now. Or now, if now is too soon. Those who are in the area affected but lack transportation or are unable to get away should contact local authorities to learn about possible transport either out of the area or to a shelter. Yes, with memories of Katrina still close at hand, going to a shelter may not seem like a great idea. But it’s definitely better, and safer, than not going. 

Projected path of Hurricane Ida as of 11 AM ET Friday.

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            Friday, Aug 27, 2021 ·  8:03:15 PM +00:00

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      Mark Sumner
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    Another aspect of this storm, as reported by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/27/us/children-covid-delta.html?smtyp=cur&amp;smid=tw-nytimes">The New York Times</a>, the area where Ida is coming to shore is not just among the areas with the highest rates of COVID-19 per capita, but one where hospitals — and particularly children’s hospitals — are full of critical patients. It may not be possible to move those patients from the storm’s path simply because there is no where else to take them, and as we saw in 2005, keeping power and other supplies available to hospitals in the midst of a hurricane can be a huge challenge.