For once, there’s a chart pointing upward that isn’t indicating the spread of COVID-19. In the midst of pandemic and what seems to be tidal wave of Republican politicians struggling for the title of Least Rational Person on Earth, it’s sometimes difficult to discern that anything good is happening at all, or even that the seams of reality aren’t getting awfully frayed. However, in the past week we’ve learned that renewable energy has pulled ahead of coal as a source of electricity in the U.S., there has been the first sign that Republican hostility toward vaccination is starting to crack in the face of a new wave of infections, and the White House reports that vaccination rates are increasing. Sure, it would have been about 10,000% better had Republicans just gotten vaccinated in the first place, and maybe we could have avoided that new wave altogether, but … 

Anyway, here’s another thing that’s good. Goodish. Better than nothing. As of Thursday, the United States GDP is officially back to a level slightly above where it was when the nation slipped into the pandemic. On the one hand, that might seem like a shruggable statistic. After all, we are talking about an economy that took a serious dive in the midst of what appeared to be an existential crisis. On the other hand, we’re not out of that crisis. Not only that, but the economy had already begun to tank before COVID-19 became a thing. A number of factors, including the trade war TFG started with China, were seriously cutting into the world economy, and that global slowdown was cutting hard into the U.S. In April 2019, the U.S. experienced a worrying “inverted yield curve,” and by September the Federal Reserve was intervening in an effort to prop up increasingly shaky markets. The first quarter of 2020 likely would have signaled recession, pandemic or no. 

So the idea that, in the face of not only the pandemic, but also pre-existing pressures that were directing the world toward recession, the U.S. has been able to do more than tread water has to be read as a good thing. And that GDP report followed a June jobs report that showed jobs making their largest gain in a year with numbers that exceeded expectations. Despite everything that’s happening, The Conference Board now sets consumer confidence at a level last seen before COVID-19 was a part of anyone’s vocabulary.

GDP growth has returned to a level that’s slightly above the decline that began in 2019

As The Hill reports, the gains in consumer confidence for July were modest. However, they followed five months of steep improvement. That puts the level at the highest point since February 2020. Not only are more consumers expressing confidence in the economy, more say that they intend make major purchases (think homes or automobiles) in the coming months. Economists are counting on those spending trends to continue powering the U.S. economy upward over the rest of 2021.

Despite the fact that Republicans have suddenly dusted off their long unused “deficit hawk” buttons, and Republican governors and state legislatures across the nation are hurrying to cut back on unemployment benefits, there is little doubt about what’s driving the improvement in 2021. The economy is continuing to improve because of the American Rescue Plan and the reassurance it gave the public, not in spite of that plan, as Republicans would like to claim.  As The New York Times reported, this a faster comeback for the economy than after the Great Recession, and tracks more closely to how the U.S. recovered from recessions between 1990 and 2001.

The real question for the next few months will be if the economy can continue to hold its own in spite of the surge of disease brought on by the delta variant. With cases rising—especially in states like Florida and Texas, both of which recorded case counts on Thursday that put them back at levels seen during the winter spike—it seems entirely possible that both businesses and consumers could decide to put plans on hold and keep a grip on cash until the situation improves. It’s also difficult to see how the nation continues to move forward if large numbers of Americans actually get evicted from their homes.  

But for the moment, things are showing some improvement, and that’s a lot better than facing a new crisis when you’re already in the basement.