The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Matt Booker, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● FL-Sen, FL-07: In a surprise, Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy announced on Monday that she would seek re-election to the House rather than challenge Republican Sen. Marco Rubio. Murphy’s decision makes Rep. Val Demings, a former Orlando police chief who would be Florida’s first Black senator, the favorite to secure the Democratic nod, though Team Blue’s field is still taking shape.

Murphy’s declaration was unexpected because it came less than two weeks after Axios, citing unnamed “people familiar with the matter,” reported that the congresswoman was planning to announce a Senate bid in early June, though her team quickly said she was still making up her mind. So, it seems, she was. Whatever the case, Murphy’s decision not to run statewide is another important reminder that, even if a potential candidate gives every indication they’re committed to a race, someone isn’t running for office until they announce they’re running for office. Until that magic moment, they can always back down.

Indeed, there was a major event between the Axios story and Murphy’s decision that very much seems to have played a role in the congresswoman’s choice: Multiple media outlets also reported last week that Demings, a fellow congresswoman from the Orlando area, would enter the Senate race, but unlike Murphy, her team soon made it clear she had indeed decided to run.

Campaign Action

Murphy didn’t mention her colleague by name on Monday, but her statement acknowledged that there would have been a tough intra-party fight if they’d both run. “The reality is that Marco Rubio will not be an easy opponent especially if it’s on the heels of a bruising primary where Democrats spend millions attacking each other instead of using those millions to build the infrastructure we desperately need to win,” Murphy said.

Her decision also will come as a relief to House Democrats looking to defend a seat that could get a lot redder in redistricting. The current version of Florida’s 7th Congressional District, which is based in the northern Orlando suburbs, started the decade as very closely divided turf on the presidential level, but it’s moved steadily to the left since, backing Joe Biden by a 55-44 margin last year. Republican mapmakers will have the chance to reverse the impact of those shifts, though, and Democrats will likely benefit from having a battle-hardened incumbent there to defend it.

Senate

● IA-Sen: Former Crawford County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer, who lost re-election last year by 95 votes, on Monday became the first Democrat to announce a bid for the Senate seat held by Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley. Muhlbauer’s narrow loss came despite Donald Trump carrying Crawford County (pop. 17,000) by a 68-31 margin. Iowa Starting Line’s Pat Rynard notes that both Muhlbauer’s father and uncle represented western Iowa in the state legislature.

● NV-Sen: Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt finally confirmed on Friday that he was considering another run for office, though he didn’t give a timeline for when he expected to decide. Laxalt, who was the 2018 Republican nominee for governor, also didn’t mention a specific post he was looking at, though multiple media outlets have reported that he’s interested in taking on Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto next year.

● PA-Sen: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman recently released a Data for Progress poll finding him well ahead in a Democratic primary, and now he’s also dropped numbers showing him outperforming Rep. Conor Lamb in a general election. The survey has Fetterman beating two declared Republican candidates, real estate developer Jeff Bartos and 2020 House contender Sean Parnell, by margins of 48-38 and 48-40, respectively. Lamb, though, leads Bartos only 43-42, while Parnell edges him out 44-42. It’s possible the difference can be attributed to name recognition, but Fetterman’s poll didn’t include any questions that would shed light on name ID. Lamb, who defeated Parnell last year in the 17th Congressional District, has not yet announced a campaign for the Senate.

● VT-Sen: While Democratic Sen. Pat Leahy recently reiterated that he doesn’t plan to decide whether to seek a ninth term until around December, Politico reports that he’s asking his colleagues to back his potential bid for re-election. If Leahy, who will be 82 on Election Day, were to remain in the upper chamber, he would pass the late Robert Byrd as the longest-serving senator in American history in June of 2026.

An unnamed source also passes on the rather surprising detail that Leahy has informed other senators that he’s “the only Democrat that can win the seat.” It’s true that Leahy is the one Democrat to ever be elected to represent Vermont in the Senate—Bernie Sanders was identified as an independent during each of his three campaigns—but the state’s politics have dramatically shifted to the left during his long tenure.

Leahy himself should know: While he narrowly won his first two campaigns in 1974 and 1980, he prevailed by double digits in 1986 and hasn’t been seriously threatened since. Indeed, the last time Republicans won a federal election in Vermont was 2000, when Leahy’s then-colleague, Jim Jeffords, secured re-election months before he abandoned the GOP to became a Democratic-aligned independent.

● WI-Sen: Nonprofit founder Steven Olikara recently filed FEC paperwork for a potential bid for the Democratic nod. Olikara stepped down last month as head of the Millennial Action Project, which the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel describes as a group that “encourages bipartisan political cooperation among young leaders.”

Governors

● AR-Gov: Two prominent ex-Republicans, state Sen. Jim Hendren and former state House Speaker Davy Carter, both tell the New York Times that they’re considering running as independents, though they say they wouldn’t compete against one another. Hendren, who is also the nephew of termed-out GOP Gov. Asa Hutchinson, led the chamber’s Republican majority until last year, but he left the party in February in response to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Carter, meanwhile, ran the House from 2013 to 2015, which made him the first Republican speaker since Reconstruction.

The Times’ story indicates that they’d only run if Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate, former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, secures the GOP nomination next year, though there’s no quote from either Hendren or Carter explicitly saying so. Each man, though, made it extremely clear how much they hate the direction of their former party, with Carter declaring, “I’m convinced that even in Arkansas, Trump and Trumpism is a slow-sinking ship.”

● AZ-Gov: Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs doesn’t appear to have publicly said anything about a potential run for governor in over a year, but the Arizona Capitol Times reports that she’s “expected to imminently" enter this open seat race. Another Democrat, state Rep. Aaron Lieberman, also acknowledged his own interest in campaigning to succeed termed-out Republican Gov. Doug Ducey. The only announced Democratic contender at the moment is former Homeland Security official Marco López, who is also a former mayor of Nogales.

● ID-Gov: Far-right anti-government militant Ammon Bundy tried to file paperwork to run for governor of Idaho on Monday, but first he might want to simply try registering to vote. Bundy listed himself as his campaign treasurer, but according to the Idaho Secretary of State’s office, treasurers must actually be voters—and Bundy isn’t, so he’ll have to refile. (Candidates also have to meet this daunting hurdle, but election officials say they’re “primarily concerned with who’s handling campaign funds at this point of the election cycle,” according to KTVB.)

Complicating matters for Bundy is that he’s been banned from the grounds of the Idaho state Capitol in Boise—remember that time he refused to leave the building during some goofy pro-COVID protest last year, only to get himself handcuffed in a plush office chair and rolled outdoors by state troopers? The Secretary of State’s HQ is in fact located in the Capitol, making an in-person visit a bit dicey, but it looks like Bundy has figured out how to sign up for that AOL account, at least.

● NV-Gov: The Las Vegas Review-Journal wrote last month that Silver State Republicans believed that Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, Rep. Mark Amodei, and former Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison would decide which one of them should run for governor next year, but one member of the trio now indicates he’s not quite on board with this plan.

While the Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston reported Friday that Lombardo would enter the race in June, Amodei told the Associated Press’ Michelle Price in response that he was still making up his own mind and had no timeline to decide. Price, however, writes that Hutchison “said he will be serving as chairman of Lombardo’s campaign,” though there’s no direct quote from Hutchison (Ralston previously reported the same thing, but again, no quote).

Amodei also relays that another high-profile Republican, former Sen. Dean Heller, told him the previous week that he, too, was thinking about taking on Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. The former senator himself has not yet said anything publicly about his 2022 plans, however, and he didn’t return Price’s request for comment.

Heller had considered running for governor in the 2018 cycle only to seek re-election instead, though that decision doesn’t seem to have been entirely voluntary. Ralston wrote at the time that Heller decided it “wasn’t worth the risk” of running for governor in a primary against Adam Laxalt, who represented the Trumpier wing of the party; both Heller and Laxalt ultimately met the same fate in the general election when they lost to Democrats by similar margins.

The only notable Republican currently challenging Sisolak is North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, a former conservative Democrat who switched parties weeks ahead of his kickoff. Lee says that he’d previously called Lombardo to inform him he was in, adding that the sheriff “called me up maybe two weeks later and said, ‘Hey, I want to give you the same courtesy that I think you gave me, and I’m going to run too.'”

● OH-Gov: Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley recently confirmed to the Cincinnati Enquirer's Jason Williams that he would indeed launch his long-anticipated campaign against Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, saying, “We’re all in.” Cranley, who is unable to seek re-election this year because of term limits, has been raising money for a gubernatorial bid for months, announcing in April he’d already raised $800,000. He joins a fellow mayor, Dayton’s Nan Whaley, in next year’s primary.

Cranley has a long career in politics in the Queen City, which included a decade on the City Council in the 2000s and losses to local Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in both 2000 and 2006. Cranley was elected to lead the city in 2013, though four years later, he seemed doomed to defeat after he badly trailed an opponent who campaigned to his left, City Councilwoman Yvette Simpson, in May’s nonpartisan primary. The mayor rallied that fall, though, and won 54-46.

Cranley also spent most of his time in elected office opposed to abortion rights, but he now identifies as pro-choice. The mayor, however, remains a supporter of fracking, which could be a fault line in the primary.

● PA-Gov: Republican Nche Zama, whom ABC 27 describes as a “renowned cardiothoracic surgeon,“ has joined the race for this open seat.

● RI-Gov: Termed-out Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea kicked off a bid over the weekend for Rhode Island’s governorship, the second notable Democrat after physician Luis Daniel Muñoz to enter the contest. Democratic Gov. Dan McKee is serving out the remainder of former Gov. Gina Raimondo’s final term and said before he ascended to the post that his plan was to run for the top job, but hasn’t formally announced anything since taking over.

Gorbea said earlier this year McKee’s presence would not be a deterrent for her then-potential candidacy and it appears she isn’t alone in that thinking: State Treasurer Seth Magaziner and Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza, who has been weighing a bid for this seat since 2019, are both considering getting in the race.

House

● GA-14: Physician John Cowan, who lost last year’s GOP runoff to Marjorie Taylor Greene by a 57-43 margin, reiterated that he’s considering a rematch, though he says he wants to wait to see how redistricting might affect Georgia’s 14th District, which occupies the rural northwestern corner of the state.

Despite his loss, Cowan seems to have a pretty good sense of Greene’s appeal to primary voters. “It’s not that she’s some great leader or ideologue or she’s going to be able to reform our healthcare system,” he told Insider in a new interview. “They’re like, ‘No, she’s going to go burn it to the ground. We want you to come in when it’s in the ashes and come back up, and I’m kind of like, ‘Well, I’d like not to see it get burned to the ground.'”

The problem, of course, is that Greene’s supporters aren’t interested in anything resembling the truth—something Cowan himself knows well. Not long after he and Greene advanced to last year’s runoff, he tried to pitch himself with the tagline, “All of the conservative, none of the embarrassment.” Needless to say, it didn’t work: Republican voters embraced all of the conservative and all of the embarrassment in one complete package.

● NM-01: A new crowdfunded poll of next week’s special election in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District finds Democratic state Rep. Melanie Stansbury leading Republican state Sen. Mark Moores 49-33, with Republican-turned-Libertarian-turned-independent Aubrey Dunn at 5 and actual Libertarian candidate Chris Dunn taking 3. Nine percent of voters were undecided. The poll was paid for by two organizations, RRH Elections, a conservative site, and Elections Daily, which bills itself as a nonpartisan outlet, using Wick for automated phone calls and Prolific and SurveyMonkey for online panels.

Attorneys General

● AZ-AG, AZ-09: Dillon Rosenblatt of the Arizona Capitol Times reports that “there’s increasing chatter” that Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton could run for state attorney general, which will be open next year because Republican Mark Brnovich faces term limits. In addition, January Contreras, who lost to Brnovich 52-48 in 2018, recently said she wouldn’t try again, so the Democratic field is likely to be wide open, with state Rep. Diego Rodriguez already saying he’ll run.

For Republicans, former state Supreme Court Justice Andrew Gould, who resigned from the bench in March, announced a bid last month, as did attorney Tiffany Shedd, who lost a bid against 1st District Democratic Rep. Tom O’Halleran 52-48 last year. Rosenblatt adds that former federal prosecutor Lacy Cooper and Arizona Chamber of Commerce chair Dawn Grove could also join the race.

Mayors

● Anchorage, AK Mayor: On Friday night, Democrat Forrest Dunbar conceded the May 11 general election to conservative Dave Bronson, who defeated him 51-49 in this officially nonpartisan race. Bronson’s win returns control of the mayor’s office to the right for the first time in six years; Anchorage, unusually, elects its mayors to three-year terms, so Bronson will next be up in 2024.

Bronson’s victory came at a time when Team Blue appeared to be making gains in city politics: Anchorage narrowly backed Joe Biden four years after voting for Donald Trump, and progressives continue to control most seats on the Anchorage Assembly, the equivalent to a city council.

The timing of the election, though, likely gave Bronson a big boost. Dunbar, who will remain a member of the Assembly, voted in support of pandemic safety measures, policies that his rival bitterly attacked. The Assembly unanimously voted weeks ahead of Election Day to remove several rules, but the changes may have come too late to alter the course of the election. Indeed, the Assembly, in response to new CDC guidelines, went on to end the local mask mandate three days after Election Day.

● New York City, NY Mayor: Rep. Adriano Espaillat endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams Sunday ahead of the June 22 Democratic primary; Espaillat had previously backed Scott Stringer, but he retracted his endorsement shortly after the city comptroller was accused of sexual assault.

Espaillat also explained why he was now backing one the most conservative candidates by arguing that Adams was actually a progressive. Things got a bit awkward, though, when the congressman tried to lay out his own progressive credentials by blurting out, “I read Das Kapital!”

● St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: All the major candidates in this year’s open seat race have been Democrats up until now, but that looks like it’s about to change. Republican City Council member Robert Blackmon on Sunday informed the city clerk he was resigning his post, effective in January, which is something he’d need to do under Florida’s “resign to run” law if he’s to campaign for mayor. Blackmon has not yet said anything about his plans, but with the June 18 filing deadline coming up, we won’t be kept waiting for long.

● Seattle, WA Mayor: Filing closed on Friday for the Seattle mayoral race, which is open seat after incumbent Jenny Durkan’s surprising retirement after just one term. Fifteen different candidates are seeking the Emerald City’s highest office, despite the job’s long track record of being a destroyer of dreams: No Seattle mayor has managed to get re-elected since Greg Nickels in 2005, and before that, Norm Rice in 1993.

The race is officially nonpartisan, with the top two candidates advancing from the Aug. 3 primary to the Nov. 2 general election. Conventional wisdom holds that the two frontrunners are City Council President Lorena González and former City Council President Bruce Harrell, who also served as interim mayor for five days in 2017 following Ed Murray’s resignation.

While both candidates are very much left-of-center by national standards, Harrell, a former University of Washington football star with an African American father and Japanese mother, had a reputation as one of the council’s more business-friendly members. González, meanwhile, is situated to Harrell’s left, though even she could be viewed as occupying the council’s “center” in relation to other more vocal members, like self-declared socialist Kshama Sawant. González, who grew up with farmworker parents in eastern Washington and was the first Latina elected to the Seattle City Council, in 2015, briefly ran for state attorney general in 2020 but reversed course when Democratic incumbent Bob Ferguson decided to run for re-election.

Two other candidates who haven’t held elected office before, however, currently enjoy a sizable edge over González and Harrell in fundraising, thanks in large part to Seattle’s “democracy voucher” program, which allows residents to give public funds to candidates of their choice. The candidate who’s raised the most is Colleen Echohawk, the executive director of the Chief Seattle Club, which focuses on providing services to homeless Native Americans. In second place is Andrew Grant Houston, an architect who is also interim policy director for City Councilor Teresa Mosqueda. (Mosqueda, however, has endorsed González.)

Contrary to what you might think based on their job descriptions, though, Echohawk has a reputation as more of establishment candidate; she’s also a board member of the business-aligned Downtown Seattle Association, for instance. Houston is probably the leftmost of the major candidates based on policy positions (such as on policing issues) and endorsements, and by virtue of having the anti-establishment left lane largely to himself, he may be the best-positioned candidate to sneak into the top two in place of either González or Harrell.

Also jostling for the top tier is former state Rep. Jessyn Farrell, who’s the only returning candidate from the 2017 race, where she finished fourth in the primary. As with last time, Farrell is focusing on the environmentalist/urbanist niche in the field. One other potentially notable candidate is Casey Sixkiller, who entered recently and hasn’t posted financing numbers yet. Sixkiller is Durkan’s deputy mayor, which, while not an elected position, can be helpful in terms of establishment connections.

Finally, there are two others contenders who aren’t likely to advance but are interesting wild cards, partly in terms of who else they might take votes away from. One is Art Langlie, who despite his name, is not Seattle’s mayor and Washington’s governor from the 1940s; he’s a businessman who is the grandson of the similarly named historic figure. As an ex-Republican, he seems to be the closest the race has to an actual moderate (by national standards), so if he gets any traction on backlash-based rhetoric, that’s likely to come out of Harrell’s vote share.

The other interesting hopeful is James Donaldson, a former Seattle SuperSonic from 1980 to 1983 (and an All-Star with the Dallas Mavericks in 1988) who’s now a local businessman. At 7-foot-2, Donaldson would also easily be the nation’s tallest elected official, though he’s failed twice to win office in the past. Donaldson ran for Seattle mayor in 2009, finishing fourth in the primary despite lacking previous political experience, but he took just 3% of the vote in a City Council race a decade later.