The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

● Programming Note: Daily Kos Elections will be taking a short break for Memorial Day. The Live Digest will return Tuesday, and the Morning Digest will be back Wednesday.

Leading Off

● AZ-SoS: State Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita announced on Thursday that she’ll seek the Republican nomination for secretary of state—a position whose powers her own party is trying to strip. That effort is underway because the job is held by a Democrat, Katie Hobbs, who has sought to expand voting access. Making the power-grab as transparent as possible, the legislation under consideration would restore those powers (which include the ability to defend the state in election lawsuits and approve settlements) on Jan. 2, 2023, the moment a new secretary of state would take office.

That someone could indeed be Ugenti-Rita, who has sponsored some of the most aggressive new voting restrictions in Arizona. Most notorious was a party-line bill, recently signed by term-limited Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, that ended the permanence of the state’s popular permanent voting list by removing voters who fail to vote frequently enough for the GOP’s liking.

Ugenti-Rita has also made headlines for other unwelcome reasons. Last year, she was accused of sexual harassment by a lobbyist who said Ugenti-Rita’s husband (an advisor to Ducey) propositioned her for a threesome by sending her nude photos of the senator. The lobbyist said that Ugenti-Rita herself also “invited her to stay the night in her hotel room” at a conference and later confronted her in a bathroom and called her a liar.

Campaign Action

The Republican-run state Senate declined to investigate the matter, though the scandal did feature prominently in a primary challenge to Ugenti-Rita last year from attorney Alex Kolodin. The incumbent nonetheless prevailed 60-40 and easily won re-election in the fall.

Ugenti-Rita will face another primary, however, in her quest to succeed Hobbs, with state Rep. Mark Finchem already seeking the GOP nomination. Finchem will give Ugenti-Rita a tough fight for the mantle of most fervent voter suppression crusader: He led the push to have the legislature reject Arizona’s popular vote and instead appoint a slate of electors who would back Donald Trump (whose campaign paid him $6,000 for “legal consulting” in December). He also attended Trump’s rally on Jan. 6 that spurred the invasion of the Capitol, though he claims he did not enter the building.

As for Hobbs, she has yet to announce her plans, though a recent report from the Arizona Capitol Times’ Dillon Rosenblatt said she would soon kick off a bid for governor. Rosenblatt mentioned House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding and former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes as possible Democratic candidates if Hobbs does not seek re-election.

Senate

● AZ-Sen: Retired Maj. Gen. Michael McGuire, who stepped down as adjutant general of the Arizona National Guard last month, has filed paperwork with the FEC ahead of a possible bid against Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, though he has yet to publicly confirm whether he’ll seek the Republican nomination.

● IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Politico reports that, according to unnamed sources, former Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer is preparing a bid for Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley’s seat, possibly in anticipation that the 87-year-old incumbent will decide against seeking an eighth term. Finkenauer lost 51-49 to Republican Ashley Hinson last year, two years after ousting Republican Rep. Rod Blum 51-46 in 2018’s blue wave. Finkenauer herself hasn’t spoken publicly about her plans.

Meanwhile, state Auditor Rob Sand, one of three Democrats who holds statewide office in Iowa, says he won’t run for Senate but is considering a bid for governor and would announce his plans by Labor Day.

Governors

● CT-Gov: This week, former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides publicly expressed interest in a potential run against Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont for the first time. Klarides also filed paperwork that the Hartford Courant says “allow[s] her to use her personal funds as she travels the state and talks to voters.” So far, though, the Republican has not set up a committee that would enable her to raise money for a potential bid.

If Klarides does run, she may have some opposition for the GOP nod. 2018 nominee Bob Stefanowski, who lost to Lamont 49-46, very much did not rule out another campaign when asked by the paper, saying instead, “I’ve been humbled by the number of people who stop me every day and ask me to run again, and they are the ones that matter most to me.”

● FL-Gov: St. Pete Polls’ new Democratic primary survey for Florida Politics finds Rep. Charlie Crist beating state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried 55-22 in a hypothetical duel. Crist currently is Team Blue’s only announced contender, though Fried has an announcement planned for Tuesday.

Other Democrats may also get in including state Sen. Annette Taddeo, who reiterated her interest to Politico. The story says that Taddeo, who was Crist’s chosen running-mate for lieutenant governor in 2014, had been “wavering” about running, but she became more interested after Rep. Val Demings decided to campaign for Senate instead of governor.

Politico adds that former state Rep. Sean Shaw, who was Team Blue’s 2018 nominee for attorney general, has also been talked about, but while he didn’t outright dismiss the idea, he said he was focused on statewide ballot measures.

● GA-Gov, GA-LG: Republican state Sen. Bert Jones appears to have set his sights on running for lieutenant governor rather than waging a primary challenge against GOP Gov. Brian Kemp. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported on Thursday that he is expected to run for the number two position and that Jones has said he will reach a decision about whether to run in mid-to-late June. Jones also directed some criticism against would-be primary rival and fellow state Sen. Butch Miller, who kicked off his campaign for lieutenant governor on Tuesday, by bashing Miller for suggesting Trump wouldn’t have as much influence over the race because he lives in Florida.

● MD-Gov: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has confirmed that she will indeed stay out of next year’s Democratic primary for governor and will seek re-election instead. Alsobrooks had already been raising money for a potential bid for governor and had reportedly been urged to run by some top state Democrats. However, she had previously signaled she was unlikely to take the plunge and now says she is staying put this cycle in the interest of her teenage daughter and to continue her efforts of helping her constituents recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

● MI-Gov: After long evading the question, former state House Speaker Lee Chatfield has finally said he won’t seek the Republican nod for governor next year. He did offer praise for retiring Detroit Police Chief James Craig, who’s considering a bid, and Chatfield may be angling to run with him for the spot of lieutenant governor, according to Fox 2 Detroit’s Tim Skubick.

● NH-Gov, NH-01: With many Democrats waiting to see what Rep. Chris Pappas does before deciding whether to run for governor, local ABC affiliate WMUR mentioned several other Democrats who could run if Pappas doesn’t. That list includes state Senate Minority Leader Donna Soucy, state Sen. Tom Sherman, former state Sens. Shannon Chandley and Melanie Levesque, and former Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky, who unsuccessfully ran in the 2020 primary.

On the Republican side, state Senate President Chuck Morse and former state Commissioner of Health and Human Services John Stephen were both reported to be considering bids for either Pappas’ House seat or the Republican nomination if incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu decides to run for Senate.

Stephen has run for both offices he’s been mentioned for: He unsuccessfully ran for the 1st District in 2002 and 2008 and was Team Red’s nominee for governor in the 2010 election, which he lost 53-45 to Democratic incumbent John Lynch. Morse’s hometown of Salem is not currently located in the 1st District, but WMUR says he’s interested in running if it’s moved there in the next round of redistricting.

For his part, Pappas recently said he was “really committed to continu[ing] to serve here another term” in the House but wasn’t ruling out a run for governor, especially if Republicans try to gerrymander him out of his seat next year.

● PA-Gov: Butler County GOP Chairman Al Lindsay, in an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer, mentioned Republican strategist Charlie Gerow as a potential candidate for governor by noting that he was one of the would-be contenders who recently did a swing through western Pennsylvania. Gerow, a well-known consultant in Pennsylvania politics, has tried to make the leap from operative to candidate twice before when he unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. House in 1998 and 2000.  

There’s no word from Gerow himself on his plans, but this mention adds him to an already expansive list of possible Republican candidates for this seat.

Mayors

● Buffalo, NY Mayor: Incumbent Byron Brown is seeking an unprecedented fifth term this year in this heavily blue city, but he first needs to get past nurse India Walton in the June 22 Democratic primary. Brown very much looks like the favorite over Walton, a first time contender who is campaigning to the mayor’s left, in what the Buffalo News characterized this week as “the so far quiet Democratic primary,” but there are some indications he could be vulnerable.

Brown himself won 51% of the vote in the 2017 primary against two sitting elected officials, which wasn’t a strong showing for a longtime incumbent. Federal officials since then have reportedly been investigating Brown’s administration over city contracts, though there have been no recent public developments.

Walton, who has called for defunding the police, has also faulted the mayor for his handling of police brutality. The challenger has the backing of Martin Gugino, who spent a month in the hospital last year after he was shoved to the ground by local officers during a protest against the murder of George Floyd: The incident attracted national attention, but none of the officers involved were charged.

Walton has the support of the Working Families Party, which had endorsed Brown in each of his prior campaigns, and while the incumbent maintains a large financial advantage, she may have enough to get her message out. Brown outraised Walton $173,000 to $84,000 from mid-January to mid-May, and he went into the final weeks with a $207,000 to $53,000 cash-on-hand lead.

● Los Angeles, CA Mayor: Multiple media outlets report that Joe Biden will nominate Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti to become ambassador to India, a development that could shake up next year’s open seat race to succeed Garcetti as leader of America’s second-most populous city.

The Associated Press’ Erika Martin writes that if the mayor is confirmed by the U.S. Senate, much of what would happen next would be up to the Los Angeles City Council. The 15-member body’s leader, Council President Nury Martinez, would automatically become acting mayor upon Garcetti’s resignation, which would make her the first woman to lead the city. She may not be there long, however, as the Council can vote to select her or a different person to serve as interim mayor.

Indeed, Martinez has expressed interest in running in her own right, so several of her colleagues may be reluctant to select her as interim mayor and give their potential rival the benefits of incumbency. City Councilman Joe Buscaino is already in the race, while several other Council members, including Paul Krekorian, Kevin de León, and Mark Ridley-Thomas, could also get in. The City Council also has the option to hold a special election for the remainder of Garcetti’s term, though the expenses involved may keep this from happening.

No matter what, though, the regularly-scheduled nonpartisan primary will go forward in June of next year in this heavily Democratic city. The only notable declared contender besides Buscaino is City Attorney Mike Feuer, but others are considering. In addition to the aforementioned City Council members, Central City Association head Jessica Lall and mall developer Rick Caruso are each reportedly thinking about getting in, and more could be interested no matter what happens with Garcetti.

P.S. If Garcetti does resign, he would be the first L.A. mayor to leave office early since 1916, when the city was a far smaller place. That year, Charles Sebastian quit after a newspaper published his love letters to his longtime mistress, which included the revelation that Sebastian demeaned his wife as “the Old Haybag.“ The scandal that ended his career came just after he’d won election following an assassination attempt; Sebastian was initially charged with faking an attempt on his life, but the charges were dismissed.

● New York City, NY Mayor: If we can pass on just one thing to you in this edition of the Digest, dear reader, it’s this: Do not stay up for a winner for the June 22 instant-runoff Democratic primary. While votes will be tabulated that night for ballots cast in-person during the early vote period and on Election Day, mail-in votes will not be counted until the week of July 12.

The New York City Board of Elections said this week that this delay is due to state law that allows absentee votes to be received for up to two weeks after Election Day, and for voters to fix any minor errors. Ranked choice tabulations will not occur on election night, but the BoE said that the first tallies will start a week after the election. We almost certainly won’t know who won the Democratic primary, though, until all the votes are tabulated in mid-July.

● St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: Republicans got their first notable candidate for this year’s open seat race on Wednesday when City Council member Robert Blackmon announced he would run. Blackmon won elected office for the first time in 2019 at the age of 30, an accomplishment he says made him the youngest person to ever serve on the body.

During his short time on the City Council, the Republican has also made a name for himself as a loud opponent of termed-out Democratic Mayor Rick Kriseman. Last week, Blackmon was twice gaveled down by a colleague after his questioning of a Kriseman administration official, in the words of the Tampa Bay Times, “devolved into accusations of unprofessionalism and ended with other Council members lamenting the erosion of decorum and pleading for composure.”